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<p>In this study, we analyze the spatiotemporal changes in the snowfall to total precipitation ratio (S/P) and classify snowfall events (SE) across Türkiye over the period from 1970 to 2022 using data from 226 meteorological stations. We applied the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, K-means clustering, and Shannon Entropy Index (SI) to examine trends and shifts in snowfall frequency and intensity. Our analysis reveals a significant downward trend in the S/P ratio during 1993–2008, coinciding with a marked shift in SE class distributions. Notably, heavy and moderate SE have decreased, while light SE have increased, especially at high-elevation stations in Eastern Anatolia. These changes are attributed to rising temperatures driven by anthropogenic climate change, with elevated regions experiencing more pronounced warming, altering snowfall phase patterns. Teleconnection indices, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), are explored to understand their role in modulating the temporal and spatial variability of snowfall in Türkiye. These results underscore the importance of considering both elevation-driven temperature changes and large-scale atmospheric patterns to quantify the risks associated with extreme snowfall events under future warming scenarios.</p>

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Long-term trends and spatial patterns of snowfall across Türkiye: influence of topography and atmospheric teleconnections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月28日

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  • Hıdır Serkendiz,
  • Hasan Tatli

摘要

In this study, we analyze the spatiotemporal changes in the snowfall to total precipitation ratio (S/P) and classify snowfall events (SE) across Türkiye over the period from 1970 to 2022 using data from 226 meteorological stations. We applied the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, K-means clustering, and Shannon Entropy Index (SI) to examine trends and shifts in snowfall frequency and intensity. Our analysis reveals a significant downward trend in the S/P ratio during 1993–2008, coinciding with a marked shift in SE class distributions. Notably, heavy and moderate SE have decreased, while light SE have increased, especially at high-elevation stations in Eastern Anatolia. These changes are attributed to rising temperatures driven by anthropogenic climate change, with elevated regions experiencing more pronounced warming, altering snowfall phase patterns. Teleconnection indices, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), are explored to understand their role in modulating the temporal and spatial variability of snowfall in Türkiye. These results underscore the importance of considering both elevation-driven temperature changes and large-scale atmospheric patterns to quantify the risks associated with extreme snowfall events under future warming scenarios.