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<p>This study compared CHIRPS (satellite-based) and ERA5-Land (reanalysis) precipitation products against ground observations from 114 Moroccan stations between 1987 and 2016. The objectives were to evaluate precipitation estimation at different temporal scales, assess the effects of altitude on performance, and examine drought detection using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). ERA5-Land showed higher correlations (Pearson’s r: 0.61–0.86) and standard deviation ratios near 1, better representing variability during cold and transitional seasons, but overestimated precipitation in the mountainous areas. CHIRPS displayed lower correlations (Pearson’s r: 0.47–0.77), underestimated variability and precipitation during the dry seasons, and had limitations at higher elevations. For drought detection, ERA5-Land reproduced long-term drought conditions more accurately, with a higher probability of detection (POD &gt; 60%) and lower false alarm ratio (FAR &lt; 40%), whereas CHIRPS tended to exaggerate drought severity and duration, accompanied by a false alarm ratio (up to 92%). ERA5-Land proved more suitable for multi-month drought analysis in Morocco, whereas CHIRPS can supplement spatial analysis with caution. Both products require targeted improvements to increase the reliability of precipitation and drought estimates in Morocco, including more robust algorithms, local corrections, and better integration of ground-truth observations.</p>

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Comparative analysis of CHIRPS and ERA5-Land for precipitation and drought assessment in Morocco (1987–2016)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月21日

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  • Majda Choukri,
  • Mustapha Naimi,
  • Mohamed Chikhaoui

摘要

This study compared CHIRPS (satellite-based) and ERA5-Land (reanalysis) precipitation products against ground observations from 114 Moroccan stations between 1987 and 2016. The objectives were to evaluate precipitation estimation at different temporal scales, assess the effects of altitude on performance, and examine drought detection using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). ERA5-Land showed higher correlations (Pearson’s r: 0.61–0.86) and standard deviation ratios near 1, better representing variability during cold and transitional seasons, but overestimated precipitation in the mountainous areas. CHIRPS displayed lower correlations (Pearson’s r: 0.47–0.77), underestimated variability and precipitation during the dry seasons, and had limitations at higher elevations. For drought detection, ERA5-Land reproduced long-term drought conditions more accurately, with a higher probability of detection (POD > 60%) and lower false alarm ratio (FAR < 40%), whereas CHIRPS tended to exaggerate drought severity and duration, accompanied by a false alarm ratio (up to 92%). ERA5-Land proved more suitable for multi-month drought analysis in Morocco, whereas CHIRPS can supplement spatial analysis with caution. Both products require targeted improvements to increase the reliability of precipitation and drought estimates in Morocco, including more robust algorithms, local corrections, and better integration of ground-truth observations.