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<p>The Euphrates–Tigris Basin (ETB) is a transboundary basin highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change, and most of its population, economies, and ecosystems depend on this river system. While the basin has received attention in climate change studies, a basin-wide characterization of multiple projected emission pathways under different scenarios and their impacts on long-term (&gt; 35 years) average conditions in key water-supply generating regions is not available. This research covers anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation over the ETB based on Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for different Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. For three future periods, 2016–2040, 2041–2069, and 2070–2099, climate simulations were performed and compared with a historical climatology (1961–1990) at a spatial resolution of 1.25° × 0.95°. The presence of a general warming trend across the whole basin and an intense focus on the highlands of Turkey and upstream Iran, where major climate changes are expected. Basin-wide temperature scenarios indicate increases of 1.65&#xa0;°C (RCP2.6), 2.65&#xa0;°C (RCP4.5), 3.15&#xa0;°C (RCP6.0), and 4.76&#xa0;°C (RCP8.5). Less precipitation is expected in boreal and partly in mountain provinces, while changes in southern lowlands do not counterbalance the upstream deficiencies. These findings point to an increasing hydrological risk in downstream countries, notably Iraq, and underscore the urgency of mitigating emissions and of integrated intergovernmental water-resources management.</p>

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Effects of climate change on temperature and precipitation in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月14日

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  • Yaseen K. Al-Timimi,
  • Alaa M. AL-Lami,
  • Monim H. Al-Jiboori,
  • Ayad M. Fadhil Al-Quraishi

摘要

The Euphrates–Tigris Basin (ETB) is a transboundary basin highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change, and most of its population, economies, and ecosystems depend on this river system. While the basin has received attention in climate change studies, a basin-wide characterization of multiple projected emission pathways under different scenarios and their impacts on long-term (> 35 years) average conditions in key water-supply generating regions is not available. This research covers anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation over the ETB based on Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for different Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. For three future periods, 2016–2040, 2041–2069, and 2070–2099, climate simulations were performed and compared with a historical climatology (1961–1990) at a spatial resolution of 1.25° × 0.95°. The presence of a general warming trend across the whole basin and an intense focus on the highlands of Turkey and upstream Iran, where major climate changes are expected. Basin-wide temperature scenarios indicate increases of 1.65 °C (RCP2.6), 2.65 °C (RCP4.5), 3.15 °C (RCP6.0), and 4.76 °C (RCP8.5). Less precipitation is expected in boreal and partly in mountain provinces, while changes in southern lowlands do not counterbalance the upstream deficiencies. These findings point to an increasing hydrological risk in downstream countries, notably Iraq, and underscore the urgency of mitigating emissions and of integrated intergovernmental water-resources management.