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<p>Global climate change is getting worse, and vulnerable communities in developing nations are disproportionately affected by rising temperatures and unpredictable precipitation patterns. Floods and droughts are examples of extreme weather events that pose a threat to infrastructure, livelihoods, and water security. This study assesses climate risk and vulnerability in Haripur city of the Hazara region, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, based on the IPCC risk framework, using bias-corrected CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, and socioeconomic vulnerability and exposure indicators. By 2071–2100, maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 2.5&#xa0;°C under SSP2-4.5 and 4.2&#xa0;°C under SSP5-8.5, while minimum temperatures rise by 2.3&#xa0;°C and 4.1&#xa0;°C, respectively. Annual precipitation is expected to increase by ~ 17% under SSP2-4.5 and 28% under SSP5-8.5. The integrated risk assessment identifies Darwesh and City-12 as the highest-risk areas (with normalized risk indices of 0.49 and 0.33, respectively, on a 0–1 scale where 1 represents maximum risk and 0 shows minimum risk), highlighting the integrated impacts of climate change and socioeconomic factors on vulnerable communities. Integration of climate hazards with local vulnerability demonstrates that risk intensifies under high-emission scenarios, emphasizing the urgent need for climate-resilient urban planning and adaptation strategies tailored to the most exposed and vulnerable communities.</p>

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Integrating CMIP6 climate projections with community-based vulnerability assessment for climate resilience in Haripur, Pakistan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月23日

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  • Syed Shujaat Ali,
  • Sabahat Isha,
  • Hamza Paracha,
  • Abdullah Nadeem,
  • Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq

摘要

Global climate change is getting worse, and vulnerable communities in developing nations are disproportionately affected by rising temperatures and unpredictable precipitation patterns. Floods and droughts are examples of extreme weather events that pose a threat to infrastructure, livelihoods, and water security. This study assesses climate risk and vulnerability in Haripur city of the Hazara region, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, based on the IPCC risk framework, using bias-corrected CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, and socioeconomic vulnerability and exposure indicators. By 2071–2100, maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 2.5 °C under SSP2-4.5 and 4.2 °C under SSP5-8.5, while minimum temperatures rise by 2.3 °C and 4.1 °C, respectively. Annual precipitation is expected to increase by ~ 17% under SSP2-4.5 and 28% under SSP5-8.5. The integrated risk assessment identifies Darwesh and City-12 as the highest-risk areas (with normalized risk indices of 0.49 and 0.33, respectively, on a 0–1 scale where 1 represents maximum risk and 0 shows minimum risk), highlighting the integrated impacts of climate change and socioeconomic factors on vulnerable communities. Integration of climate hazards with local vulnerability demonstrates that risk intensifies under high-emission scenarios, emphasizing the urgent need for climate-resilient urban planning and adaptation strategies tailored to the most exposed and vulnerable communities.