<p>Extreme precipitation events, including Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (medicanes), pose substantial hydroclimatic hazards in Greece, frequently causing floods, infrastructure damage, and socio-economic disruption. This study provides a multi-scalar assessment of extreme rainfall exposure, integrating probabilistic analysis of multi-day precipitation extremes with population and sectoral economic data. Spatial patterns of maximum cumulative precipitation reveal a west–east gradient in hazard probability, with the Ionian Islands, western mainland, and central Greece most frequently affected, reflecting recurring cyclone landfall zones and orographic enhancement. Population and economic exposure analyses indicate that, although moderate hazard intensity spans large areas, exposure is concentrated in densely populated coastal and urban regions, where service-sector activity dominates. Service GDP accounts for the majority of economic exposure, followed by industry and agriculture, reflecting the country’s economic structure. Event-based evaluation of major storms—Zorbas (2018), Ianos (2020), Ballos (2021), Daniel (2023), and Elias (2023)—demonstrates that widespread but moderate-intensity events such as Ballos can expose over seven million people, whereas localized, intense storms like Ianos affect fewer individuals but potentially more vulnerable communities. These results emphasize the decisive role of storm footprint and spatial extent in shaping national exposure and highlight the disproportionate vulnerability of the service sector. The study introduces an exposure index framework for Greece linking probabilistic hazard metrics with sectoral economic and demographic data, providing a robust basis for climate-risk assessment and targeted disaster resilience planning in the eastern Mediterranean.</p>

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Assessing population and sectoral economic exposure to extreme precipitation and Mediterranean tropical-like Cyclones in Greece using a multi-sector exposure index

  • Ilias Petrou,
  • Pavlos Kassomenos

摘要

Extreme precipitation events, including Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (medicanes), pose substantial hydroclimatic hazards in Greece, frequently causing floods, infrastructure damage, and socio-economic disruption. This study provides a multi-scalar assessment of extreme rainfall exposure, integrating probabilistic analysis of multi-day precipitation extremes with population and sectoral economic data. Spatial patterns of maximum cumulative precipitation reveal a west–east gradient in hazard probability, with the Ionian Islands, western mainland, and central Greece most frequently affected, reflecting recurring cyclone landfall zones and orographic enhancement. Population and economic exposure analyses indicate that, although moderate hazard intensity spans large areas, exposure is concentrated in densely populated coastal and urban regions, where service-sector activity dominates. Service GDP accounts for the majority of economic exposure, followed by industry and agriculture, reflecting the country’s economic structure. Event-based evaluation of major storms—Zorbas (2018), Ianos (2020), Ballos (2021), Daniel (2023), and Elias (2023)—demonstrates that widespread but moderate-intensity events such as Ballos can expose over seven million people, whereas localized, intense storms like Ianos affect fewer individuals but potentially more vulnerable communities. These results emphasize the decisive role of storm footprint and spatial extent in shaping national exposure and highlight the disproportionate vulnerability of the service sector. The study introduces an exposure index framework for Greece linking probabilistic hazard metrics with sectoral economic and demographic data, providing a robust basis for climate-risk assessment and targeted disaster resilience planning in the eastern Mediterranean.