Scholarlink

<p>This study investigates the long-term trends and variability of convective characteristics across Mongolia during the summer season (June to August) over the period 1940 to 2023. Two thermodynamic parameters Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and the K-index were examined using ERA5 reanalysis data to evaluate their seasonal behavior, spatial distributions, and temporal evolution. Comparison with radiosonde observations from Ulaanbaatar indicates that ERA5 data adequately represents vertical temperature structure, although dew point profiles show reduced moisture at lower and mid-levels. Both CAPE and K-index reach peak values in July, particularly over central and northern Mongolia, coinciding with increased convective precipitation. While the overall summer (JJA) CAPE shows a statistically significant decreasing trend of − 2.05&#xa0;J kg⁻¹ per decade, K-index exhibits a statistically significant annual increasing trend of approximately + 0.11&#xa0;°C per decade. Spatial patterns reveal that zones of enhanced CAPE and K-index correspond with regions receiving greater convective rainfall, suggesting a consistent relationship between thermodynamic structure and precipitation processes. The results indicate pronounced interannual to decadal variability in summer convective environments, rather than a uniform long-term intensification. These findings are consistent with other regional studies across East and Central Asia. This research contributes to a better understanding of convective climatology in continental interior settings and supports the application of thermodynamic indices in regional assessments of precipitation related hazards.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Long-term trends and variability of convective indices over Mongolia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月9日

查看全文
  • Ganbold Boldbaatar,
  • Jambajamts Lkhamjav

摘要

This study investigates the long-term trends and variability of convective characteristics across Mongolia during the summer season (June to August) over the period 1940 to 2023. Two thermodynamic parameters Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and the K-index were examined using ERA5 reanalysis data to evaluate their seasonal behavior, spatial distributions, and temporal evolution. Comparison with radiosonde observations from Ulaanbaatar indicates that ERA5 data adequately represents vertical temperature structure, although dew point profiles show reduced moisture at lower and mid-levels. Both CAPE and K-index reach peak values in July, particularly over central and northern Mongolia, coinciding with increased convective precipitation. While the overall summer (JJA) CAPE shows a statistically significant decreasing trend of − 2.05 J kg⁻¹ per decade, K-index exhibits a statistically significant annual increasing trend of approximately + 0.11 °C per decade. Spatial patterns reveal that zones of enhanced CAPE and K-index correspond with regions receiving greater convective rainfall, suggesting a consistent relationship between thermodynamic structure and precipitation processes. The results indicate pronounced interannual to decadal variability in summer convective environments, rather than a uniform long-term intensification. These findings are consistent with other regional studies across East and Central Asia. This research contributes to a better understanding of convective climatology in continental interior settings and supports the application of thermodynamic indices in regional assessments of precipitation related hazards.