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<p>Climate change is increasingly exacerbating the risk of desertification, particularly in semi-arid and transitional climate zones, through rising temperatures and increased atmospheric water demand. This study comparatively analyzes spatial and temporal changes in aridity conditions across Türkiye for two climate normal periods (1958–1990 and 1991–2020) using high-resolution TerraClimate dataset and the De Martonne, UNEP, Erinç, and Budyko Dryness indexes. Spatial validation analyses demonstrate strong agreement between TerraClimate-based indices and MGM station data (<i>r</i> = 0.82–0.84). Additional validation using ERA5-Land also supports the reliability of the Budyko (<i>r</i> = 0.78) and UNEP (<i>r</i> = 0.76) indices. Delta analyses reveal a consistent expansion of semi-arid areas by + 0.36% to + 0.87%. Furthermore, water–energy balance-based indices indicate that increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) has become a more dominant driver of recent drying processes than precipitation variability. In conclusion, aridity change in Türkiye is mainly concentrated in semi-arid transition zones and is increasingly driven by rising atmospheric water demand. The findings emphasize the importance of multi-index and water–energy balance approaches for basin-scale risk management and climate adaptation planning.</p>

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Shifting aridity patterns in Türkiye: a comparative assessment of De Martonne, UNEP, Erinç and Budyko Dryness indexes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月27日

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  • Mehmet Ali Çelik

摘要

Climate change is increasingly exacerbating the risk of desertification, particularly in semi-arid and transitional climate zones, through rising temperatures and increased atmospheric water demand. This study comparatively analyzes spatial and temporal changes in aridity conditions across Türkiye for two climate normal periods (1958–1990 and 1991–2020) using high-resolution TerraClimate dataset and the De Martonne, UNEP, Erinç, and Budyko Dryness indexes. Spatial validation analyses demonstrate strong agreement between TerraClimate-based indices and MGM station data (r = 0.82–0.84). Additional validation using ERA5-Land also supports the reliability of the Budyko (r = 0.78) and UNEP (r = 0.76) indices. Delta analyses reveal a consistent expansion of semi-arid areas by + 0.36% to + 0.87%. Furthermore, water–energy balance-based indices indicate that increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) has become a more dominant driver of recent drying processes than precipitation variability. In conclusion, aridity change in Türkiye is mainly concentrated in semi-arid transition zones and is increasingly driven by rising atmospheric water demand. The findings emphasize the importance of multi-index and water–energy balance approaches for basin-scale risk management and climate adaptation planning.