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<p>Climate change poses a significant threat to global agriculture, particularly in developing countries like India, where rice cultivation is a critical component of food security and rural livelihoods. This study assessed the impact of climate change on rice yields for all the 13 districts of Andhra Pradesh using district-wise monthly temperature and rainfall data from 1991 to 2020 using panel data regression model and climate projections under the RCP-4.5 scenario, as it better reflects the climate of the Indian subcontinent for 2020–2049 to estimate future yield sensitivity. Results indicated that increasing temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns negatively affect rice productivity, with expected yield reductions of 49.03 to 172.23&#xa0;kg/ha during <i>kharif</i> (rainy season) and 133.13 to 241.48&#xa0;kg/ha during <i>rabi</i> (post-rainy season) by 2050. The study also evaluated the effectiveness of Climate-Resilient Agricultural (CRA) technologies, particularly flood-tolerant rice varieties in Srikakulam district (flood-prone), for mitigating these losses. Findings reveal that adopting flood-tolerant varieties significantly improves yield (by 492.85&#xa0;kg/ha) and farm income (by 11,652.31Rs/ha). These results are statistically significant at five per cent LOS. These results highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies, including climate resilient crop varieties, targeted subsidies, and financial support to enhance resilience and sustain rice production in the face of climate change.</p>

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Rice yields and climate change: impacts and adaptation in Southern India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月28日

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  • Sandhya Neelima Atla,
  • Anantha Rama Rao Chitiprolu,
  • Nirmal Ravi Kumar Kotamraju,
  • Srinivasa Rao Vatluri,
  • Rama Devy Mulpuri

摘要

Climate change poses a significant threat to global agriculture, particularly in developing countries like India, where rice cultivation is a critical component of food security and rural livelihoods. This study assessed the impact of climate change on rice yields for all the 13 districts of Andhra Pradesh using district-wise monthly temperature and rainfall data from 1991 to 2020 using panel data regression model and climate projections under the RCP-4.5 scenario, as it better reflects the climate of the Indian subcontinent for 2020–2049 to estimate future yield sensitivity. Results indicated that increasing temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns negatively affect rice productivity, with expected yield reductions of 49.03 to 172.23 kg/ha during kharif (rainy season) and 133.13 to 241.48 kg/ha during rabi (post-rainy season) by 2050. The study also evaluated the effectiveness of Climate-Resilient Agricultural (CRA) technologies, particularly flood-tolerant rice varieties in Srikakulam district (flood-prone), for mitigating these losses. Findings reveal that adopting flood-tolerant varieties significantly improves yield (by 492.85 kg/ha) and farm income (by 11,652.31Rs/ha). These results are statistically significant at five per cent LOS. These results highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies, including climate resilient crop varieties, targeted subsidies, and financial support to enhance resilience and sustain rice production in the face of climate change.