<p>Europe is experiencing accelerated warming at rates exceeding the global average, with the Baltic region reflecting similar climatological trends. However, it remains unclear whether an increase in the mean temperature is accompanied by an increase in the frequency and magnitude of atypical meteorological phenomena. Therefore, this study examines the temporal and spatial variability of warm, cold, wet, and dry spells in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania over the period of 1961–2020 based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data. Spells have been defined as a period of at least two consecutive days with meteorological variables (mean air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and climatological water balance) exceeding the 90th percentile or falling below the 10th percentile of long-term values. The results reveal a clear warning signal: warm and dry spells have become up to twice as frequent and long, whereas cold and wet spells have moderately decreased. For example, the number of days with warm spells in winter increased at a rate of 0.22 d year<sup>− 1,</sup> whereas the days with cold spells decreased by 0.11 d year<sup>− 1</sup>. In terms of the climatological water balance, the number of days with dry spells in spring increased by 0.14 d year<sup>− 1</sup>, whereas the wet spell days changed negligibly, increasing by 0.01 d year<sup>− 1</sup>. Regional variability is evident: coastal zones, particularly the West Estonian archipelago, exhibit the most significant changes towards warmer and drier conditions. Similarly, the south-central area shows marked summer increases in dry spells associated with rising aridity. The asymmetric increase in warm and dry spells relative to the decline in cold and wet events points toward an amplification of extreme weather conditions in the Baltic region.</p>

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More frequent warm and dry spells along persistent cold and wet spells in the Baltics

  • Gunta Kalvāne,
  • Andis Kalvāns,
  • Agrita Briede

摘要

Europe is experiencing accelerated warming at rates exceeding the global average, with the Baltic region reflecting similar climatological trends. However, it remains unclear whether an increase in the mean temperature is accompanied by an increase in the frequency and magnitude of atypical meteorological phenomena. Therefore, this study examines the temporal and spatial variability of warm, cold, wet, and dry spells in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania over the period of 1961–2020 based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data. Spells have been defined as a period of at least two consecutive days with meteorological variables (mean air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and climatological water balance) exceeding the 90th percentile or falling below the 10th percentile of long-term values. The results reveal a clear warning signal: warm and dry spells have become up to twice as frequent and long, whereas cold and wet spells have moderately decreased. For example, the number of days with warm spells in winter increased at a rate of 0.22 d year− 1, whereas the days with cold spells decreased by 0.11 d year− 1. In terms of the climatological water balance, the number of days with dry spells in spring increased by 0.14 d year− 1, whereas the wet spell days changed negligibly, increasing by 0.01 d year− 1. Regional variability is evident: coastal zones, particularly the West Estonian archipelago, exhibit the most significant changes towards warmer and drier conditions. Similarly, the south-central area shows marked summer increases in dry spells associated with rising aridity. The asymmetric increase in warm and dry spells relative to the decline in cold and wet events points toward an amplification of extreme weather conditions in the Baltic region.