Constructing a precision-driven integrated agricultural drought monitoring index: navigating short-term climate variability in Karnataka
摘要
Drought, a multifaceted hydroclimatic phenomenon, remains challenging to assess because conventional univariate indices rely on monthly mean rainfall and fail to capture intra-monthly variability. The objective of the study is to develop an Integrated Drought Index (IDI) that accounts for intra-monthly rainfall variations using the Standardised NEt-Precipitation distribution Index (SNEPI) method. Accordingly, the IDI-1 (based on Principal Component Analysis), IDI-2 (based on the Normalised Vegetative Supply Water Index), and IDI-3 (based on the copula) were developed, and their comparative performance was assessed for identifying the best-suited IDI for the agro-climatic zones (ACZs) of Karnataka state. The spatial (ACZs and at the state level) and temporal (monthly and annual scales) analyses of SNEPI found that SNEPI performed better than the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in detecting dry spells during the monsoon, with the lowest correlation of 0.66 in the monsoon month of September. Among the three indices, IDI-1 performed well in representing drought events in terms of onset, drought severity, and spatial extent as per the validation datasets. Furthermore, IDI-2 qualitatively differentiated drought years based on the slope of the temporal variations. The copula-based index IDI-3 is too sensitive to variations in the considered variables, as it fails to differentiate between drought and non-drought years. Therefore, from the observed results, the IDI-1 is the best-suited integrated drought index for effectively monitoring agricultural drought across ACZs. Surpassing the conventional assumption of mean monthly rainfall distribution, highlighting the significance of the developed tailored IDIs for effective regional drought monitoring.