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<p>For effective water and land management, particularly in river basins reliant upon monsoons, it is essential to have a fundamental understanding of how vegetation responds to combined climatic variability and hydrological regulation. This research examines the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation in the Arpa River Basin of Central India from 1999 to 2024 and seeks to disentangle climatic variability from dam-induced hydrological changes resulting from hydrological modifications occurring after approximately 2010. The NDVI was derived using annual Landsat surface reflectance data, and information was sourced on precipitation and air temperatures from CHIRPS and ERA5-Land and gridded datasets from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). A 6&#xa0;km radius around large water-retaining structures was utilized to analyze how vegetation in the area responds differently from vegetation outside the defined boundaries of the basins. Non-parametric trend analysis and inferential statistics have revealed a very slight (Sen’s slope ≈ 0.002–0.003 yr⁻¹) but statistically significant overall trend toward increased greenness in areas that are located within approximately the 6&#xa0;km dam buffer zone of virtually all of the dams analyzed. Also, NDVI appeared to have a very strong positive relationship with rainfall (<i>r</i> = 0.65–0.72) and a weak negative correlation to temperature. The overall results of this study indicate that, on an inter-annual basis, rainfall is the dominant factor in determining vegetation performance; however, the presence of regulators allows for the supplementation of damage done to vegetation on a local level. These research findings may be important considerations when developing basin-wide irrigation strategies, implementing climate adaptation strategies, and determining equitable water management practices that will preserve agricultural output while eliminating the ecological costs associated with agricultural production.</p>

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Spatio - temporal changes in vegetation dynamics under climate variability and water structures in the Arpa river Basin, Central India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月2日

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  • Rahul Kumar Patel,
  • Prasoon Soni,
  • Pushpraj Singh

摘要

For effective water and land management, particularly in river basins reliant upon monsoons, it is essential to have a fundamental understanding of how vegetation responds to combined climatic variability and hydrological regulation. This research examines the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation in the Arpa River Basin of Central India from 1999 to 2024 and seeks to disentangle climatic variability from dam-induced hydrological changes resulting from hydrological modifications occurring after approximately 2010. The NDVI was derived using annual Landsat surface reflectance data, and information was sourced on precipitation and air temperatures from CHIRPS and ERA5-Land and gridded datasets from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). A 6 km radius around large water-retaining structures was utilized to analyze how vegetation in the area responds differently from vegetation outside the defined boundaries of the basins. Non-parametric trend analysis and inferential statistics have revealed a very slight (Sen’s slope ≈ 0.002–0.003 yr⁻¹) but statistically significant overall trend toward increased greenness in areas that are located within approximately the 6 km dam buffer zone of virtually all of the dams analyzed. Also, NDVI appeared to have a very strong positive relationship with rainfall (r = 0.65–0.72) and a weak negative correlation to temperature. The overall results of this study indicate that, on an inter-annual basis, rainfall is the dominant factor in determining vegetation performance; however, the presence of regulators allows for the supplementation of damage done to vegetation on a local level. These research findings may be important considerations when developing basin-wide irrigation strategies, implementing climate adaptation strategies, and determining equitable water management practices that will preserve agricultural output while eliminating the ecological costs associated with agricultural production.