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<p>The impact of high climate variability on coffee ecosystems in the Illubabor Zone is poorly quantified and understood, hindering the implementation of adaptive measures and sustainable coffee production. This study aimed to examine the spatial variability, trends, and ecological vulnerability of extreme temperature and rainfall events in the coffee-growing zones of the Ilubabor Zone in Southwest Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Meteorological Institute provided 42 years (1981–2023) of daily temperature and precipitation data. Data quality assurance and extraction of extreme climate indices were conducted. This study analyzed the parametric (linear) and non-parametric trends of extreme indicators and assessed ecological vulnerability based on exposure to extreme climate events, focusing on hotspots in the study area. The findings revealed significant spatial variations in the precipitation and temperature indices. The frequency of very wet days (R95P) showed a significant decreasing trend, whereas the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) sharply increased. The number of warm nights (TN90P) and warm days (TX90P) significantly increased, whereas the number of cold nights (TN10P) and cold days (TX10P) decreased. Uncertain to moderate increases were observed in the minimum (TXn) and maximum (TXx) daytime temperatures. The coffee-growing ecosystem and coffee-based livelihoods in the Bure District are most at risk, with a high vulnerability score of 0.72. Precipitation (PRCPtot) was identified as the primary driver (15%) of climate change. These extreme temperatures and rainfall events pose a growing threat to coffee-based livelihoods in the Bure and Mettu districts. This study highlights the need for targeted adaptation measures, such as soil and water conservation and improved early warning systems, to sustain coffee production in an evolving environment.</p>

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Spatiotemporal analysis of extreme precipitation and temperature variability, trends, and vulnerability hotspots in coffee growing districts of Ilubabor zone, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月12日

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  • Eshetu Bekele Legese,
  • Girma Mamo Diga,
  • Alemayehu Regassa Tolossa,
  • Gudina Legese Feyisa

摘要

The impact of high climate variability on coffee ecosystems in the Illubabor Zone is poorly quantified and understood, hindering the implementation of adaptive measures and sustainable coffee production. This study aimed to examine the spatial variability, trends, and ecological vulnerability of extreme temperature and rainfall events in the coffee-growing zones of the Ilubabor Zone in Southwest Ethiopia. The Ethiopian Meteorological Institute provided 42 years (1981–2023) of daily temperature and precipitation data. Data quality assurance and extraction of extreme climate indices were conducted. This study analyzed the parametric (linear) and non-parametric trends of extreme indicators and assessed ecological vulnerability based on exposure to extreme climate events, focusing on hotspots in the study area. The findings revealed significant spatial variations in the precipitation and temperature indices. The frequency of very wet days (R95P) showed a significant decreasing trend, whereas the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) sharply increased. The number of warm nights (TN90P) and warm days (TX90P) significantly increased, whereas the number of cold nights (TN10P) and cold days (TX10P) decreased. Uncertain to moderate increases were observed in the minimum (TXn) and maximum (TXx) daytime temperatures. The coffee-growing ecosystem and coffee-based livelihoods in the Bure District are most at risk, with a high vulnerability score of 0.72. Precipitation (PRCPtot) was identified as the primary driver (15%) of climate change. These extreme temperatures and rainfall events pose a growing threat to coffee-based livelihoods in the Bure and Mettu districts. This study highlights the need for targeted adaptation measures, such as soil and water conservation and improved early warning systems, to sustain coffee production in an evolving environment.