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<p>Brazil is a mayor maize producer and exporter, with the 1st and, largely, 2nd growing seasons driving annual production. Given the impact of climate warming on productivity, we evaluated adaptation strategies for maize growth and yield under future climate scenarios across the country. Using the DSSAT/CERES-Maize model, we simulate maize over a 30-year period, incorporating daily historical data (1980–2009) and future projections (2040–2069 and 2070–2099) from an ensemble of seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Projection indicates warming trends, with wetter conditions in the south and drier in the north, leading to regional yield impacts. The 1st season is mainly affected by accelerated development due to higher temperatures, while the 2nd faces water stress during its critical phases, with losses ranging from 11 to 38% and 5–23%, respectively. Adaptation of maize in future will be site-specific, with longer-cycle cultivars and early sowing as key strategies. Some cooler regions may benefit 2nd crop from warming, and improved management when combined supports the role of enhanced maize yield, although norther areas will likely experience continued losses.</p>

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Assessment of regional climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for maize production in Brazil

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月12日

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  • Fabiani Denise Bender,
  • Paulo Cesar Sentelhas

摘要

Brazil is a mayor maize producer and exporter, with the 1st and, largely, 2nd growing seasons driving annual production. Given the impact of climate warming on productivity, we evaluated adaptation strategies for maize growth and yield under future climate scenarios across the country. Using the DSSAT/CERES-Maize model, we simulate maize over a 30-year period, incorporating daily historical data (1980–2009) and future projections (2040–2069 and 2070–2099) from an ensemble of seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Projection indicates warming trends, with wetter conditions in the south and drier in the north, leading to regional yield impacts. The 1st season is mainly affected by accelerated development due to higher temperatures, while the 2nd faces water stress during its critical phases, with losses ranging from 11 to 38% and 5–23%, respectively. Adaptation of maize in future will be site-specific, with longer-cycle cultivars and early sowing as key strategies. Some cooler regions may benefit 2nd crop from warming, and improved management when combined supports the role of enhanced maize yield, although norther areas will likely experience continued losses.