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<p>Global Climate Models (GCMs) are an imperative component in water resource management for the identification of key factors of climate, simulation of climatic behavior, and prediction of future conditions. The performance evaluation of GCMs is another vital task for ensuring reliable climate projection. The study assesses 35 CMIP6 GCMs from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NASA NEX-GDDP) datasets against India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations (1950–2014) to evaluate their performance in simulating rainfall over the Thamirabharani River Basin. Model performances were assessed using six statistical indicators, such as Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), Percent Bias, Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Skill Score (SS). The relative importance of these indicators was considered through three weighting schemes: Equal weight, Entropy-based weight, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-derived weight<b>.</b> Additionally, Five Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) Techniques are PROMETHEE-II, TOPSIS, VIKOR, MOORA, and Compromise Programming (CP), were applied to comprehensively rank the GCMs. Based on the combined outcomes of the statistical analysis and ranking using Group Decision Method (GDM), the best-performing models, ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, MIROC6, NorESM2-MM, and BCC-CSM2-MR, were identified. These selected models are used to project future rainfall and rainfall erosivity for two different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP4.5 and SSP8.5, respectively. By the end of the century, South-West Monsoon, North-East Monsoon, and annual rainfall are projected to increase by 69.0%, 53.5%, and 52.8%, respectively, under SSP4.5, and by 93.3%, 80.6%, and 70.6%, respectively, under SSP8.5. Rainfall erosivity is also projected to increase by 45% under SSP4.5 and 71.7% under SSP8.5.Overall, Rainfall and erosivity are expected to intensify be toward the end of the century, especially under high-emission conditions, which implies higher risks for soil erosion and water resource challenges.</p>

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Performance evaluation of CMIP6 climate models for rainfall and erosivity in the thamirabharani basin, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月9日

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  • Jeilani Mohammed,
  • Shashi Mesapam

摘要

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are an imperative component in water resource management for the identification of key factors of climate, simulation of climatic behavior, and prediction of future conditions. The performance evaluation of GCMs is another vital task for ensuring reliable climate projection. The study assesses 35 CMIP6 GCMs from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NASA NEX-GDDP) datasets against India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations (1950–2014) to evaluate their performance in simulating rainfall over the Thamirabharani River Basin. Model performances were assessed using six statistical indicators, such as Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), Percent Bias, Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Skill Score (SS). The relative importance of these indicators was considered through three weighting schemes: Equal weight, Entropy-based weight, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-derived weight. Additionally, Five Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) Techniques are PROMETHEE-II, TOPSIS, VIKOR, MOORA, and Compromise Programming (CP), were applied to comprehensively rank the GCMs. Based on the combined outcomes of the statistical analysis and ranking using Group Decision Method (GDM), the best-performing models, ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, MIROC6, NorESM2-MM, and BCC-CSM2-MR, were identified. These selected models are used to project future rainfall and rainfall erosivity for two different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP4.5 and SSP8.5, respectively. By the end of the century, South-West Monsoon, North-East Monsoon, and annual rainfall are projected to increase by 69.0%, 53.5%, and 52.8%, respectively, under SSP4.5, and by 93.3%, 80.6%, and 70.6%, respectively, under SSP8.5. Rainfall erosivity is also projected to increase by 45% under SSP4.5 and 71.7% under SSP8.5.Overall, Rainfall and erosivity are expected to intensify be toward the end of the century, especially under high-emission conditions, which implies higher risks for soil erosion and water resource challenges.