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<p>In the physiographically diverse region of North Bengal, which comprises of eight districts of West Bengal, India, rainfall variability is vital in determining regional hydrology, agriculture, and socioeconomic stability. This study analyses the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall across North Bengal over the period 1901–2024 using advanced statistical techniques. High-resolution daily data from 31 IMD grid stations were analysed across monthly, seasonal, and annual scales, with datasets validated against observations through bias correction. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) was used to identify long-term patterns without parametric limitations, whilst Innovative Polygon Analysis (IPA) offered a spatial depiction of precipitation trends. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was applied to classify the region into homogeneous rainfall zones. The northern Himalayan foothills record the heaviest rainfall in North Bengal, often exceeding 3,500&#xa0;mm annually, with extremes above 12,000&#xa0;mm at G27. In contrast, the southern plains average only 1,400–2,200&#xa0;mm, showing weak or declining trends. Seasonal contrasts are equally striking: northern stations record up to 750&#xa0;mm of pre-monsoon rain and 800&#xa0;mm post-monsoon, while the south remains much drier with less than 260&#xa0;mm pre-monsoon and about 120&#xa0;mm post-monsoon. Winter is generally dry across the plains, averaging barely 25–35&#xa0;mm, though northern sites like G31 can spike to nearly 860&#xa0;mm in rare years. HCA shows a clear divide rain-soaked northern hills face floods and landslides, while the drier plains struggle with water scarcity and agricultural stress in the south. The study emphasizes region-specific strategies for sustainable water management and climate resilience.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Spatio-temporal patterns of long-term rainfall trends in North Bengal (1901–2024) using advanced trends and hierarchical clustering techniques

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月20日

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  • Alok Sarkar,
  • Prasanya Sarkar,
  • Pulak Barman,
  • Suvra Maji,
  • Sarfaraz Alam,
  • Shasanka Kumar Gayen

摘要

In the physiographically diverse region of North Bengal, which comprises of eight districts of West Bengal, India, rainfall variability is vital in determining regional hydrology, agriculture, and socioeconomic stability. This study analyses the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall across North Bengal over the period 1901–2024 using advanced statistical techniques. High-resolution daily data from 31 IMD grid stations were analysed across monthly, seasonal, and annual scales, with datasets validated against observations through bias correction. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) was used to identify long-term patterns without parametric limitations, whilst Innovative Polygon Analysis (IPA) offered a spatial depiction of precipitation trends. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was applied to classify the region into homogeneous rainfall zones. The northern Himalayan foothills record the heaviest rainfall in North Bengal, often exceeding 3,500 mm annually, with extremes above 12,000 mm at G27. In contrast, the southern plains average only 1,400–2,200 mm, showing weak or declining trends. Seasonal contrasts are equally striking: northern stations record up to 750 mm of pre-monsoon rain and 800 mm post-monsoon, while the south remains much drier with less than 260 mm pre-monsoon and about 120 mm post-monsoon. Winter is generally dry across the plains, averaging barely 25–35 mm, though northern sites like G31 can spike to nearly 860 mm in rare years. HCA shows a clear divide rain-soaked northern hills face floods and landslides, while the drier plains struggle with water scarcity and agricultural stress in the south. The study emphasizes region-specific strategies for sustainable water management and climate resilience.

Graphical abstract