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<p>In the Omo Gibe Basin, where agriculture is primarily dominated by rain fed and sensitive to climate variability, understanding long-term precipitation trends is vital for ensuring sustainable farming and effective water resource management. In this study, we analyzed seasonal and spatial precipitation patterns between 1960 and 2020 using high-resolution TerraClimate data, which we validated against records from three representative stations: Wolaita Sodo in the highlands, Assendabo in the mid-altitudes, and Omorate in the lowlands. TerraClimate matched observations well in the mid- and lowlands, with KlingGupta Efficiency (KGE) scores of 0.85 and 0.71, while performance in the highlands was slightly lower (KGE = 0.63) but still suitable for hydrological studies. The lower highland performance suggests that elevation-specific bias correction could further improve accuracy. Using the Modified Mann–Kendall test, which accounts for autocorrelation, and Sen’s slope estimator, we found a clear decline in Belg season (February–May) rainfall across central and northern areas, with losses of 2.0–4.0&#xa0;mm per month. These decreases may affect timely planting, pasture availability, and food production in rain-fed agricultural systems. In contrast, rainfall in the southern section of the basin increased during the Kiremt season (June–September), with October showing notable gains of 1.5–3.5&#xa0;mm per month, which may benefit water supply but also increase flood and land degradation risks. The Bega season showed particularly high year-to-year variability, especially in the south and east, with annual fluctuations exceeding 100% of the long-term mean, which may complicate agricultural planning. The study points to a pressing requirement for adaptive actions, which encompass introducing drought-tolerant crops, optimizing irrigation, enhancing flood mitigation systems, and promoting better land management approaches. The approach presented here provides a practical framework for climate trend analysis in data-scarce regions and supports the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 2, 6, and 13.</p>

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Spatiotemporal analysis of long-term precipitation trends and implications for agricultural planning and water resource management in the Omo Gibe Basin, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月27日

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  • Abraham Loha Anebo,
  • Tena Alamirew Agumassie

摘要

In the Omo Gibe Basin, where agriculture is primarily dominated by rain fed and sensitive to climate variability, understanding long-term precipitation trends is vital for ensuring sustainable farming and effective water resource management. In this study, we analyzed seasonal and spatial precipitation patterns between 1960 and 2020 using high-resolution TerraClimate data, which we validated against records from three representative stations: Wolaita Sodo in the highlands, Assendabo in the mid-altitudes, and Omorate in the lowlands. TerraClimate matched observations well in the mid- and lowlands, with KlingGupta Efficiency (KGE) scores of 0.85 and 0.71, while performance in the highlands was slightly lower (KGE = 0.63) but still suitable for hydrological studies. The lower highland performance suggests that elevation-specific bias correction could further improve accuracy. Using the Modified Mann–Kendall test, which accounts for autocorrelation, and Sen’s slope estimator, we found a clear decline in Belg season (February–May) rainfall across central and northern areas, with losses of 2.0–4.0 mm per month. These decreases may affect timely planting, pasture availability, and food production in rain-fed agricultural systems. In contrast, rainfall in the southern section of the basin increased during the Kiremt season (June–September), with October showing notable gains of 1.5–3.5 mm per month, which may benefit water supply but also increase flood and land degradation risks. The Bega season showed particularly high year-to-year variability, especially in the south and east, with annual fluctuations exceeding 100% of the long-term mean, which may complicate agricultural planning. The study points to a pressing requirement for adaptive actions, which encompass introducing drought-tolerant crops, optimizing irrigation, enhancing flood mitigation systems, and promoting better land management approaches. The approach presented here provides a practical framework for climate trend analysis in data-scarce regions and supports the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 2, 6, and 13.