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<p>Taiwan’s humid climate creates a unique forest fire season, unlike other Northern Hemisphere regions where fires typically peak in summer. The frequency of major forest fire events in Taiwan from 1991 to 2021 was significantly higher during the dry monsoon of the year (October to April) than in the wet (May to September). In Taiwan, high temperatures are not the primary drivers of forest fires. This study examines environmental factors influencing forest fires in the Dongshi Forest District, analyzing meteorological and ground temperature data from 1991 to 2021 through statistical methods. Over this period, forest fires in Taiwan have increased 3.8-fold, with severe dry months occurring 1.5 times more frequently at intervals shorter than one season. Severe fire events in the Dongshi Forest District align with low humidity and high soil dryness, often coinciding with brief dry periods. Wind gusts intensify fire spread, while smoldering events like wildfire No.6 and wildfire No.10, characterized by prolonged burn times and small affected areas per unit time, occur under conditions of relative humidity ≤ 74.9%, soil dryness index ≤ 12.5, and low wind speeds. The Soil Dryness Index (SDI), based on vertical temperature gradients within the soil profile, provides a novel and experimentally supported indicator for assessing soil dryness and predicting forest fire risk. To mitigate fire risks, reducing leaf litter in non-critical periods and enhancing monitoring when atmospheric and soil dryness coincide—particularly during dry months—are recommended.</p>

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The relationship between environmental factors and forest fires in Taiwan: examining the increase in sudden dry months since 1991

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月10日

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  • Li-Wei Lai,
  • Wan-Li Cheng

摘要

Taiwan’s humid climate creates a unique forest fire season, unlike other Northern Hemisphere regions where fires typically peak in summer. The frequency of major forest fire events in Taiwan from 1991 to 2021 was significantly higher during the dry monsoon of the year (October to April) than in the wet (May to September). In Taiwan, high temperatures are not the primary drivers of forest fires. This study examines environmental factors influencing forest fires in the Dongshi Forest District, analyzing meteorological and ground temperature data from 1991 to 2021 through statistical methods. Over this period, forest fires in Taiwan have increased 3.8-fold, with severe dry months occurring 1.5 times more frequently at intervals shorter than one season. Severe fire events in the Dongshi Forest District align with low humidity and high soil dryness, often coinciding with brief dry periods. Wind gusts intensify fire spread, while smoldering events like wildfire No.6 and wildfire No.10, characterized by prolonged burn times and small affected areas per unit time, occur under conditions of relative humidity ≤ 74.9%, soil dryness index ≤ 12.5, and low wind speeds. The Soil Dryness Index (SDI), based on vertical temperature gradients within the soil profile, provides a novel and experimentally supported indicator for assessing soil dryness and predicting forest fire risk. To mitigate fire risks, reducing leaf litter in non-critical periods and enhancing monitoring when atmospheric and soil dryness coincide—particularly during dry months—are recommended.