Assessing future climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for sorghum yield in North Wollo, Ethiopia
摘要
Climate change poses challenges to global food production and there is need to develop agricultural adaptation strategies. The objective of the present study was to assess the impacts of climate change on sorghum yield and evapotranspiration, and investigate adaptation strategies in Kobo, North Wollo, a major sorghum-producing area in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CERES-Sorghum model was used to simulate sorghum growth under future climate scenarios. Climate projections from five different global climate models (GCMs) based on two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs 4.5 and 8.5) were considered. Six adaptation strategies were evaluated, viz. early and late planting, two fertilizer treatments, irrigation, and long maturity crop variety. The findings indicated that rainfed grain sorghum yield and crop evapotranspiration (ET) at the study site would likely decrease in the future. On average, grain sorghum yield is projected to reduce by 15–16% in mid-century (2036–2060) and by 17–22% in late-century (2066–2090), compared to the baseline (1996–2020). Seasonal (planting to harvest) ET is projected to reduce by 70 mm in mid-century (2036–2060) and 80 mm in late-century (2066–2090) compared to the baseline (1996–2020). Adaptation strategies including early planting date, increasing fertilizer by 32 and 64 kg N ha− 1 and irrigation were effective in increasing grain sorghum yield in the future on average by 30%, 6%, 12%, and 64%, respectively, whereas late planting, and longer maturity cultivar did not result in substantial yield benefits from baseline to the future period. The findings of the study would provide guidance in implementing management interventions for sustainable sorghum production in Ethiopia and similar agroclimatic regions.