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<p>Climate variability/change pose growing challenges for the IndianGangetic Plain (IGP), a densely populated and agriculturally critical region of India. Understanding district-level climatic shifts is essential for targeted adaptation planning, yet fine-scale assessments remain limited. Thus, the present study develops a Climate Variability/Change Index (CVCI) for 123 districts across the IGP for the period 1994–2023, using fourteen temperature- and rainfall-based variables. The index was constructed using two approaches (equal weighting and principal component analysis )to ensure robustness and account the relative contribution of each climatic variable. Results reveal a clear west-to-east gradient of climate exposure, with districts in the Upper and Middle Gangetic Plains consistently exhibiting very high CVCI values (0.51–0.56), driven by frequent heatwaves, large temperature departures, prolonged dry spells, and recurrent high-intensity rainfall events. In contrast, districts in the Lower Gangetic Plain show predominantly low exposure (0.31–0.36). Both methods identify western Uttar Pradesh, particularly Ghaziabad, Hapur, Gautam Budh Nagar, Etah, Hathras, Firozabad, Etawah, Auraiya, Bijnor, and Bhadohi as the most climate-stressed zone, forming a distinct heat- and drought-risk corridor requiring urgent adaptation action. These findings provide a comprehensive and spatially explicit assessment of climate variability across the IGP and offer a decision-support framework for state and district governments. The study highlights the need for targeted Heat Action Plans, improved water resource management, climate-smart agriculture, and district-level early warning systems. By identifying priority districts, the CVCI strengthens the evidence base for climate-policy integration and supports region-specific resilience planning across one of India’s most vulnerable landscapes.</p>

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Estimating the district-level climate variability/change status in the Indian gangetic plain

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月23日

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  • Purushottam Tiwari,
  • Seema Rani

摘要

Climate variability/change pose growing challenges for the IndianGangetic Plain (IGP), a densely populated and agriculturally critical region of India. Understanding district-level climatic shifts is essential for targeted adaptation planning, yet fine-scale assessments remain limited. Thus, the present study develops a Climate Variability/Change Index (CVCI) for 123 districts across the IGP for the period 1994–2023, using fourteen temperature- and rainfall-based variables. The index was constructed using two approaches (equal weighting and principal component analysis )to ensure robustness and account the relative contribution of each climatic variable. Results reveal a clear west-to-east gradient of climate exposure, with districts in the Upper and Middle Gangetic Plains consistently exhibiting very high CVCI values (0.51–0.56), driven by frequent heatwaves, large temperature departures, prolonged dry spells, and recurrent high-intensity rainfall events. In contrast, districts in the Lower Gangetic Plain show predominantly low exposure (0.31–0.36). Both methods identify western Uttar Pradesh, particularly Ghaziabad, Hapur, Gautam Budh Nagar, Etah, Hathras, Firozabad, Etawah, Auraiya, Bijnor, and Bhadohi as the most climate-stressed zone, forming a distinct heat- and drought-risk corridor requiring urgent adaptation action. These findings provide a comprehensive and spatially explicit assessment of climate variability across the IGP and offer a decision-support framework for state and district governments. The study highlights the need for targeted Heat Action Plans, improved water resource management, climate-smart agriculture, and district-level early warning systems. By identifying priority districts, the CVCI strengthens the evidence base for climate-policy integration and supports region-specific resilience planning across one of India’s most vulnerable landscapes.