<p>The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects precipitation, temperature, and many other climate parameters over large areas. Previous studies indicate a statistically significant relationship between NAO and drought in several countries within the Mediterranean Basin. In recent years, the NAO Index has remained predominantly in its positive phase. During positive NAO phases, winter precipitation in Türkiye decreases, and the tendency toward drought increases. This study aims to identify the relationships between NAO, drought, and vegetation conditions in Türkiye. Standardised precipitation (SP) was derived from ERA5 precipitation data for seven stations across Türkiye to analyse the NAO influence on drought occurrence. Additionally, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the GIMMS dataset provided by the NOAA AVHRR satellite was used to evaluate the driver effect of NAO on vegetation dynamics. Analyses were performed using statistical methods, such as Pearson correlation and linear trend analysis with the Mann-Kendal. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster analyses were applied to these datasets. Results show a statistically significant positive NAO trend in the last 40 years related to an increasing drought trend for a substantial part of Türkiye. During many periods of positive NAO, Türkiye experienced a marked reduction in precipitation. Conversely, negative NAO months often coincide with notably wetter conditions across all precipitation regions in the country. Moreover, vegetation activity (NDVI values) in the western and northern regions of Türkiye significantly declined from 1982 to 2022. The results reveal that vegetation does not respond much to drought conditions due to the positive phase of the NAO, especially in the central and eastern regions of Türkiye, thanks to increased agricultural irrigation projects.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

North Atlantic Oscillation modulation of drought and vegetation activity in Türkiye

  • Mehmet Ali Çelik,
  • Adem Kıraç,
  • Célia M. Gouveia

摘要

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects precipitation, temperature, and many other climate parameters over large areas. Previous studies indicate a statistically significant relationship between NAO and drought in several countries within the Mediterranean Basin. In recent years, the NAO Index has remained predominantly in its positive phase. During positive NAO phases, winter precipitation in Türkiye decreases, and the tendency toward drought increases. This study aims to identify the relationships between NAO, drought, and vegetation conditions in Türkiye. Standardised precipitation (SP) was derived from ERA5 precipitation data for seven stations across Türkiye to analyse the NAO influence on drought occurrence. Additionally, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the GIMMS dataset provided by the NOAA AVHRR satellite was used to evaluate the driver effect of NAO on vegetation dynamics. Analyses were performed using statistical methods, such as Pearson correlation and linear trend analysis with the Mann-Kendal. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster analyses were applied to these datasets. Results show a statistically significant positive NAO trend in the last 40 years related to an increasing drought trend for a substantial part of Türkiye. During many periods of positive NAO, Türkiye experienced a marked reduction in precipitation. Conversely, negative NAO months often coincide with notably wetter conditions across all precipitation regions in the country. Moreover, vegetation activity (NDVI values) in the western and northern regions of Türkiye significantly declined from 1982 to 2022. The results reveal that vegetation does not respond much to drought conditions due to the positive phase of the NAO, especially in the central and eastern regions of Türkiye, thanks to increased agricultural irrigation projects.