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<p>As Iraq’s water resources diminish and climate change intensifies, challenges to effective water management continue to persist. This study examines variations in yearly, seasonal, and monthly precipitation stemming from climate change under a high emission scenario for four major stations in Northwestern Iraq. In addition, assess the implications for runoff flow in the Al-Khoser River Basin. Future precipitation projections simulations at stations were done using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4-7, which was based on the Global Climate Model MIROC-MIROC5 under emission scenario RCP8.5. Simulation of the precipitation-runoff process in the Al-Khoser River Basin was performed using the mathematical model HEC-HMS, where the model’s performance was evaluated during the calibration and verification steps through the criteria Bias Percent (BP) and Nash Sutcliffe Coefficient (NS). The model showed a decrease in annual precipitation simulated by MIROC-RegCM4-7/RCP8.5 during the 2006 to 2099 period across all stations. Furthermore, the model showed increasing interannual precipitation variability, indicating higher variability in the predicted hydrological pattern. The model performance verification results reached values of (BP)of 4.8% and 12.9% for flow and runoff volume, respectively and (NS) values of 0.95 and 0.99, respectively. The HEC-HMS runoff simulation results for the periods of 2006 to 2039, 2040 to 2069, and 2070 to 2099 indicated that projected annual runoff decreases by 15%, 22%, and 33% (respectively) in comparison to the baseline 1970–2005. Results of the study support the decision to establish a harvesting dam on the Al-Khoser River, since with the presence of climate change in all periods studied, the amount of water that can be stored in the dam is still important. The volume of runoff can help alleviate the shortage of water required for irrigation, thus raising the productivity of agricultural land.</p>

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Effects of climate change on precipitation and runoff in semi-arid regions: future scenarios and implications for water

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月6日

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  • Sahar Sameer Al-Hilali,
  • Ahmed Ali Hassan,
  • Ahmed Moustafa Moussa,
  • Sherien Ahmed Zahran,
  • Samia Abou El-Fotouh

摘要

As Iraq’s water resources diminish and climate change intensifies, challenges to effective water management continue to persist. This study examines variations in yearly, seasonal, and monthly precipitation stemming from climate change under a high emission scenario for four major stations in Northwestern Iraq. In addition, assess the implications for runoff flow in the Al-Khoser River Basin. Future precipitation projections simulations at stations were done using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4-7, which was based on the Global Climate Model MIROC-MIROC5 under emission scenario RCP8.5. Simulation of the precipitation-runoff process in the Al-Khoser River Basin was performed using the mathematical model HEC-HMS, where the model’s performance was evaluated during the calibration and verification steps through the criteria Bias Percent (BP) and Nash Sutcliffe Coefficient (NS). The model showed a decrease in annual precipitation simulated by MIROC-RegCM4-7/RCP8.5 during the 2006 to 2099 period across all stations. Furthermore, the model showed increasing interannual precipitation variability, indicating higher variability in the predicted hydrological pattern. The model performance verification results reached values of (BP)of 4.8% and 12.9% for flow and runoff volume, respectively and (NS) values of 0.95 and 0.99, respectively. The HEC-HMS runoff simulation results for the periods of 2006 to 2039, 2040 to 2069, and 2070 to 2099 indicated that projected annual runoff decreases by 15%, 22%, and 33% (respectively) in comparison to the baseline 1970–2005. Results of the study support the decision to establish a harvesting dam on the Al-Khoser River, since with the presence of climate change in all periods studied, the amount of water that can be stored in the dam is still important. The volume of runoff can help alleviate the shortage of water required for irrigation, thus raising the productivity of agricultural land.