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<p>Meteorological drought, typically defined by extended periods of below-average precipitation, often precedes soil moisture drought, marked by a decline in available soil water. Understanding the relationship between these drought types is critical for enhancing agricultural resilience through optimized irrigation and strategic crop diversification. This study examines meteorological and soil moisture droughts across Iran, employing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) to assess their severity, spatial distribution, and temporal dynamics. Statistical analyses were conducted to determine the lag time between their onset, while copula functions (Archimedean and Gaussian) were applied to model the dependency between SPI and SMDI. This approach enabled the estimation of joint probabilities of co-occurring droughts in Iran’s diverse climatic regions. Results revealed a 28–39% probability of simultaneous meteorological and soil moisture droughts over 3-month periods and 29–40% over 6-month periods. These ranges, while generally consistent across regions, reflect subtle differences driven by vegetation cover, soil characteristics, and precipitation patterns. Notably, the probability of co-occurrence decreased as drought severity increased. These findings highlight the significance of probabilistic drought assessments in enhancing preparedness and adaptive strategies for water resource management and agriculture.</p>

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Investigating meteorological drought propagation to soil moisture drought: insights from Iran’s diverse climate regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月13日

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  • Zahra Seifian,
  • Farhad Hooshyaripor,
  • Bahram Saghafian,
  • Rasoul Mirabbasi

摘要

Meteorological drought, typically defined by extended periods of below-average precipitation, often precedes soil moisture drought, marked by a decline in available soil water. Understanding the relationship between these drought types is critical for enhancing agricultural resilience through optimized irrigation and strategic crop diversification. This study examines meteorological and soil moisture droughts across Iran, employing the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) to assess their severity, spatial distribution, and temporal dynamics. Statistical analyses were conducted to determine the lag time between their onset, while copula functions (Archimedean and Gaussian) were applied to model the dependency between SPI and SMDI. This approach enabled the estimation of joint probabilities of co-occurring droughts in Iran’s diverse climatic regions. Results revealed a 28–39% probability of simultaneous meteorological and soil moisture droughts over 3-month periods and 29–40% over 6-month periods. These ranges, while generally consistent across regions, reflect subtle differences driven by vegetation cover, soil characteristics, and precipitation patterns. Notably, the probability of co-occurrence decreased as drought severity increased. These findings highlight the significance of probabilistic drought assessments in enhancing preparedness and adaptive strategies for water resource management and agriculture.