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<p>Assessing the effects of the large-scale oceanic phenomena like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (ISMR) at the regional scale is crucial for the management of water resources. This study assesses the impacts of climate variability (ENSO and IOD) on rainfall in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, central India. The research uses long-term data spanning 44 years (1981–2024) to analyse spatiotemporal variation of climate sensitive indicators such as rainfall, runoff, soil moisture, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). The main objective of the study is to identify areas in the Central Indian region affected by the combination of ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) and IOD (Positive/Negative) phenomena. The clustering approach, Wavelet analysis, and the Hidden Markov Model are applied to analyse the rainfall pattern over the study area. The study indicates that the negative trends of rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture have shifted to positive trends since 2002. The findings of rainfall associated with climate indices using anomalies and clustering approach indicate that the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) shows a significant relationship with the rainfall pattern than the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The weighted overlay analysis of climate sensitive parameters with the help of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) indicates that the pure events of Positive IOD and El Niño are strongly linked to increase and decrease in the rainfall respectively, while La Niña, occurring with the negative IOD, is associated with significant increase in the rainfall. El Niño with Negative IOD create unfavourable conditions, whereas El Niño with Positive IOD yield favourable conditions in some areas and unfavourable conditions over other areas of Vidarbha region.</p>

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Quantifying ENSO and IOD effects in Vidarbha region of central India using climate sensitive indicators

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月22日

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  • Tulshidas M. Jibhakate,
  • Yashwant B. Katpatal

摘要

Assessing the effects of the large-scale oceanic phenomena like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (ISMR) at the regional scale is crucial for the management of water resources. This study assesses the impacts of climate variability (ENSO and IOD) on rainfall in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, central India. The research uses long-term data spanning 44 years (1981–2024) to analyse spatiotemporal variation of climate sensitive indicators such as rainfall, runoff, soil moisture, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). The main objective of the study is to identify areas in the Central Indian region affected by the combination of ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) and IOD (Positive/Negative) phenomena. The clustering approach, Wavelet analysis, and the Hidden Markov Model are applied to analyse the rainfall pattern over the study area. The study indicates that the negative trends of rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture have shifted to positive trends since 2002. The findings of rainfall associated with climate indices using anomalies and clustering approach indicate that the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) shows a significant relationship with the rainfall pattern than the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The weighted overlay analysis of climate sensitive parameters with the help of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) indicates that the pure events of Positive IOD and El Niño are strongly linked to increase and decrease in the rainfall respectively, while La Niña, occurring with the negative IOD, is associated with significant increase in the rainfall. El Niño with Negative IOD create unfavourable conditions, whereas El Niño with Positive IOD yield favourable conditions in some areas and unfavourable conditions over other areas of Vidarbha region.