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<p>This study investigates precipitation trends in Serbia on an annual, seasonal, and vegetation-period scales using two established. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and the Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test. Based on daily data from 14 meteorological stations spanning 1961–2020, we identified distinct temporal and spatial patterns in the precipitation trends. On the annual scale, both methods showed significant positive trends, increasing in magnitude from east to west. On the seasonal scale, both methods showed positive trends only in autumn, while ITA found both positive and negative trends in summer, spring, and winter, which is in contrast to the predominantly positive trends of the MMK. For the precipitation accumulated during the vegetation period, ITA identified significant positive trends at six stations, and thus exceeded the results of MMK. The strongest positive trends were consistently found in western Serbia, and strongest negative trends in the eastern region. Overall, ITA provided more than twice as many statistically significant results (65 cases) as MMK (31 cases), which demonstrates the higher sensitivity in detecting precipitation trends in Serbia.</p>

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Multi-scale precipitation trends across Serbia: insights from ITA and MMK methods

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月12日

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  • Tatijana Stosic,
  • Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva,
  • Ivana Tošić,
  • Borko Stosic,
  • Vladimir Djurdjević

摘要

This study investigates precipitation trends in Serbia on an annual, seasonal, and vegetation-period scales using two established. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and the Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test. Based on daily data from 14 meteorological stations spanning 1961–2020, we identified distinct temporal and spatial patterns in the precipitation trends. On the annual scale, both methods showed significant positive trends, increasing in magnitude from east to west. On the seasonal scale, both methods showed positive trends only in autumn, while ITA found both positive and negative trends in summer, spring, and winter, which is in contrast to the predominantly positive trends of the MMK. For the precipitation accumulated during the vegetation period, ITA identified significant positive trends at six stations, and thus exceeded the results of MMK. The strongest positive trends were consistently found in western Serbia, and strongest negative trends in the eastern region. Overall, ITA provided more than twice as many statistically significant results (65 cases) as MMK (31 cases), which demonstrates the higher sensitivity in detecting precipitation trends in Serbia.