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<p>Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural livelihoods in Ethiopia, especially in the semi-arid Raya Azebo district of the Tigray region. This study offers a comprehensive and integrated analysis of climate change risk perceptions, livelihood vulnerability, and the factors influencing adaptation strategies among farming communities in this highly vulnerable area. Using a multi-stage sampling method, this research employs a mixed-methods approach that combines descriptive statistics with econometric modeling, based on household survey data collected in 2024 from 397 randomly selected farming households. The findings show a high level of climate change awareness among farmers, with over 92% recognizing rising temperatures and 85% noting declining or unpredictable rainfall. Major perceived risks include recurrent droughts, floods, and an increase in pests and diseases. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) analysis resulted in an average score of 0.45, indicating a high level of vulnerability primarily caused by exposure to climate shocks and limited adaptive capacity. Farmers have adopted various adaptation strategies, especially low-cost, on-farm practices such as crop diversification (99%) and soil and water management (78%). In contrast, adoption rates for capital-intensive strategies like improved seeds (27%) were considerably lower. A multinomial logit model identified several key factors influencing adaptation choices. Access to credit and extension services significantly increased the likelihood of adopting soil and water management practices and improved crop varieties. These results highlight that strengthening the resilience of farming communities in Raya Azebo requires targeted policies to enhance institutional support, improve access to resources, and address both climatic and non-climatic stressors.</p>

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Modeling climate change risk perception, vulnerability, and adaptation in farming communities: evidence from Raya Azebo district, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月20日

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  • Selamawit Fantahun Sertse,
  • Lemi Chala Tamire,
  • Yonggong Liu

摘要

Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural livelihoods in Ethiopia, especially in the semi-arid Raya Azebo district of the Tigray region. This study offers a comprehensive and integrated analysis of climate change risk perceptions, livelihood vulnerability, and the factors influencing adaptation strategies among farming communities in this highly vulnerable area. Using a multi-stage sampling method, this research employs a mixed-methods approach that combines descriptive statistics with econometric modeling, based on household survey data collected in 2024 from 397 randomly selected farming households. The findings show a high level of climate change awareness among farmers, with over 92% recognizing rising temperatures and 85% noting declining or unpredictable rainfall. Major perceived risks include recurrent droughts, floods, and an increase in pests and diseases. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) analysis resulted in an average score of 0.45, indicating a high level of vulnerability primarily caused by exposure to climate shocks and limited adaptive capacity. Farmers have adopted various adaptation strategies, especially low-cost, on-farm practices such as crop diversification (99%) and soil and water management (78%). In contrast, adoption rates for capital-intensive strategies like improved seeds (27%) were considerably lower. A multinomial logit model identified several key factors influencing adaptation choices. Access to credit and extension services significantly increased the likelihood of adopting soil and water management practices and improved crop varieties. These results highlight that strengthening the resilience of farming communities in Raya Azebo requires targeted policies to enhance institutional support, improve access to resources, and address both climatic and non-climatic stressors.