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<p>This study investigates the joint variation of temperature and precipitation across different regions and seasons in Indonesia, focusing on how these hydroclimatic variables interact and evolve over time. Using monthly gridded data from the TerraClimate dataset spanning from 1974 to 2023, trends were estimated using ordinary least squares linear regression, with significance determined at <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05. The analysis reveals the spatial and temporal changes in these variables and their combined behavior in relation to Indonesia’s distinct hydrological seasons. Over five decades, the study shows that temperature trends exhibit clear and statistically significant increases across all regions and seasons, ranging from 0.017&#xa0;°C/yr (Java in SON) up to 0.029&#xa0;°C/yr (Sumatera in JJA). In contrast, precipitation trends exhibit greater variability, from − 0.245&#xa0;mm/yr (Sulawesi in SON) to + 0.984&#xa0;mm/yr (Kalimantan in DJF), reflecting regionally differentiated and seasonally shifting precipitation regimes. In addition, the joint variation shows how the interaction of temperature and precipitation varies within regions and shifts in different seasons. For instance, in Java, increasing temperatures during SON are not accompanied by corresponding increases in precipitation, leading to hydroclimatic imbalance, defined here as a state where persistent warming is not matched by compensating changes in precipitation, thereby disrupting the balance between water supply and atmospheric demand. Such imbalance can have significant consequences for water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. This study emphasizes the importance of adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts under a changing climate.</p>

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The joint variation of temperature and precipitation across Indonesia: A seasonal and regional analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月31日

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  • Yulizar Yulizar,
  • Chay Asdak

摘要

This study investigates the joint variation of temperature and precipitation across different regions and seasons in Indonesia, focusing on how these hydroclimatic variables interact and evolve over time. Using monthly gridded data from the TerraClimate dataset spanning from 1974 to 2023, trends were estimated using ordinary least squares linear regression, with significance determined at p < 0.05. The analysis reveals the spatial and temporal changes in these variables and their combined behavior in relation to Indonesia’s distinct hydrological seasons. Over five decades, the study shows that temperature trends exhibit clear and statistically significant increases across all regions and seasons, ranging from 0.017 °C/yr (Java in SON) up to 0.029 °C/yr (Sumatera in JJA). In contrast, precipitation trends exhibit greater variability, from − 0.245 mm/yr (Sulawesi in SON) to + 0.984 mm/yr (Kalimantan in DJF), reflecting regionally differentiated and seasonally shifting precipitation regimes. In addition, the joint variation shows how the interaction of temperature and precipitation varies within regions and shifts in different seasons. For instance, in Java, increasing temperatures during SON are not accompanied by corresponding increases in precipitation, leading to hydroclimatic imbalance, defined here as a state where persistent warming is not matched by compensating changes in precipitation, thereby disrupting the balance between water supply and atmospheric demand. Such imbalance can have significant consequences for water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. This study emphasizes the importance of adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts under a changing climate.