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<p>The response mechanism of the ecological water requirement of vegetation to climate change is crucial for optimizing water resource management and ensuring ecological security. Exploring the characteristics of climate change and the ecological water requirement of vegetation in the Shiyang River Basin is of great significance for promoting sustainable development of the basin. Based on meteorological observations and land-use data (2000–2023), this study applied climate tendency rate, cumulative anomaly, and the Mann–Kendall test to identify long-term climatic trends and clarify the impacts of environmental factors on the ecological water requirement of vegetation. A backpropagation neural network regression model was further employed for the projection of future ecological water deficits of vegetation under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) In terms of climate characteristics, the annual mean temperature exhibited a significant upward trend, increasing by 0.45&#xa0;°C per decade (<i>P</i> &lt; 0.01), with the annual mean minimum temperature increasing by 0.47&#xa0;°C per decade (<i>P</i> &lt; 0.05), while no significant trends were observed in annual mean maximum temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration. (2) Driven by both natural processes and human activities, land-use types in the basin have changed markedly. The monthly mean reference crop evapotranspiration (<i>ET</i><sub><i>0</i></sub>) ranged between 26.6766 and 150.5576&#xa0;mm, showing a negative correlation with precipitation. (3) The multi-year mean ecological water requirement of vegetation was 64.3674 × 10⁸ m³, and correlation analysis indicated that precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation area were the dominant environmental drivers (<i>P</i> &lt; 0.1). Based on CMIP6 ACCESS-CM2 global climate model data, the projected water deficit quotas of vegetation under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2021–2100 were 32.1083 × 10⁸ m³, 32.4012 × 10⁸ m³, and 25.3787 × 10⁸ m³, respectively. This study systematically reveals the characteristics of current climate change in the Shiyang River Basin and its impact mechanisms on the ecological water requirement of vegetation, providing a scientific basis and decision-making reference for water resource allocation, ecological water management, and ecosystem restoration.</p>

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Assessment of the ecological water requirement of vegetation and projected water deficit quotas in the Shiyang River Basin under climate change

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月22日

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  • Peng Zhang,
  • Heling Wang,
  • Yue Qi,
  • Wenkui Ding

摘要

The response mechanism of the ecological water requirement of vegetation to climate change is crucial for optimizing water resource management and ensuring ecological security. Exploring the characteristics of climate change and the ecological water requirement of vegetation in the Shiyang River Basin is of great significance for promoting sustainable development of the basin. Based on meteorological observations and land-use data (2000–2023), this study applied climate tendency rate, cumulative anomaly, and the Mann–Kendall test to identify long-term climatic trends and clarify the impacts of environmental factors on the ecological water requirement of vegetation. A backpropagation neural network regression model was further employed for the projection of future ecological water deficits of vegetation under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) In terms of climate characteristics, the annual mean temperature exhibited a significant upward trend, increasing by 0.45 °C per decade (P < 0.01), with the annual mean minimum temperature increasing by 0.47 °C per decade (P < 0.05), while no significant trends were observed in annual mean maximum temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration. (2) Driven by both natural processes and human activities, land-use types in the basin have changed markedly. The monthly mean reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) ranged between 26.6766 and 150.5576 mm, showing a negative correlation with precipitation. (3) The multi-year mean ecological water requirement of vegetation was 64.3674 × 10⁸ m³, and correlation analysis indicated that precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation area were the dominant environmental drivers (P < 0.1). Based on CMIP6 ACCESS-CM2 global climate model data, the projected water deficit quotas of vegetation under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2021–2100 were 32.1083 × 10⁸ m³, 32.4012 × 10⁸ m³, and 25.3787 × 10⁸ m³, respectively. This study systematically reveals the characteristics of current climate change in the Shiyang River Basin and its impact mechanisms on the ecological water requirement of vegetation, providing a scientific basis and decision-making reference for water resource allocation, ecological water management, and ecosystem restoration.