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<p>Climate system teleconnection regulates rainfall variability in tropical maritime, but the regional impacts considering local properties are not fully understood. This study investigates the teleconnection effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on tropical maritime continent rainfall using ERA5 data for 1981–2023. We analyzed the effect of teleconnection by considering topography and geographical hemisphere with focusing study in Sumatra, Indonesia. Our results reveal that ENSO teleconnection shapes rainfall regimes in Sumatra with distinct pattern depending on topography and geographic location. Dry months with rainfall below 100&#xa0;mm are rarely occurred, but El Niño has intensified and prolonged dry season, particularly in the southern hemisphere of Sumatra. When El Niño coincides with IOD, the teleconnection effect is escalated, which delays monsoon onset leading to prolonged dry conditions up to five consecutive months as observed in a lowland eastern region. Given shifted drier conditions, climate teleconnection may further intensify the risk of droughts and increased fire susceptibility in peatland region. This underscores the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies to mitigate drought risks, and prevent the spread of fires, particularly in vulnerable peatland areas.</p>

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Climate teleconnection triggers prolonged dry season in tropical maritime continent

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月3日

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  • Rahmat Hidayat,
  • Apip,
  • Adisti Prefta Dasril,
  • Muh Taufik

摘要

Climate system teleconnection regulates rainfall variability in tropical maritime, but the regional impacts considering local properties are not fully understood. This study investigates the teleconnection effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on tropical maritime continent rainfall using ERA5 data for 1981–2023. We analyzed the effect of teleconnection by considering topography and geographical hemisphere with focusing study in Sumatra, Indonesia. Our results reveal that ENSO teleconnection shapes rainfall regimes in Sumatra with distinct pattern depending on topography and geographic location. Dry months with rainfall below 100 mm are rarely occurred, but El Niño has intensified and prolonged dry season, particularly in the southern hemisphere of Sumatra. When El Niño coincides with IOD, the teleconnection effect is escalated, which delays monsoon onset leading to prolonged dry conditions up to five consecutive months as observed in a lowland eastern region. Given shifted drier conditions, climate teleconnection may further intensify the risk of droughts and increased fire susceptibility in peatland region. This underscores the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies to mitigate drought risks, and prevent the spread of fires, particularly in vulnerable peatland areas.