<p>Precipitation plays a crucial role in the hydrological cycle, and its variability is intimately tied to floods, droughts and water resources. Daily precipitation data from 44 meteorological stations were used to analyze temporal trends in annual and seasonal precipitation across the Pearl River Basin (PRB) during 1959–2018, employing the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope. Additionally, the trends of low (&lt; 10th percentile), medium (10th–90th percentile) and high (&gt; 90th percentile) precipitation at the annual and seasonal scales were also analyzed. The results showed that the annual precipitation in both the PRB and the West River Basin (WRB) exhibited a gradual upward trend accompanied by an increase in precipitation intensity. The Pearl River Delta (PRD) experienced an overall increase in annual precipitation. Across the entire study area, the seasonal precipitation demonstrated decreasing trends in spring and autumn, whereas upward trends were observed in summer and winter. Notably, there was a significant upward trend in high precipitation during summer within the PRB, the North River Basin (NRB), and the PRD. Conversely, low precipitation in winter within the PRB, the WRB, and the NRB showed decreasing trends. The results of the ITA were confirmed by the classical trend analysis methods. Moreover, the ITA can offer a visual-graphical representation of trends and categorize the low, medium, and high precipitation trends. This research provides valuable insights into understanding the patterns of local annual and seasonal precipitation changes, particularly in high and low precipitation categories. Such insights are instrumental for mitigating natural hazards and guiding effective water resource management.</p>

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Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal precipitation in the Pearl river basin, Southern China

  • Yin Zhang,
  • Pei Liu,
  • Fang Yang,
  • Qiang Wang,
  • Fei Yuan

摘要

Precipitation plays a crucial role in the hydrological cycle, and its variability is intimately tied to floods, droughts and water resources. Daily precipitation data from 44 meteorological stations were used to analyze temporal trends in annual and seasonal precipitation across the Pearl River Basin (PRB) during 1959–2018, employing the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope. Additionally, the trends of low (< 10th percentile), medium (10th–90th percentile) and high (> 90th percentile) precipitation at the annual and seasonal scales were also analyzed. The results showed that the annual precipitation in both the PRB and the West River Basin (WRB) exhibited a gradual upward trend accompanied by an increase in precipitation intensity. The Pearl River Delta (PRD) experienced an overall increase in annual precipitation. Across the entire study area, the seasonal precipitation demonstrated decreasing trends in spring and autumn, whereas upward trends were observed in summer and winter. Notably, there was a significant upward trend in high precipitation during summer within the PRB, the North River Basin (NRB), and the PRD. Conversely, low precipitation in winter within the PRB, the WRB, and the NRB showed decreasing trends. The results of the ITA were confirmed by the classical trend analysis methods. Moreover, the ITA can offer a visual-graphical representation of trends and categorize the low, medium, and high precipitation trends. This research provides valuable insights into understanding the patterns of local annual and seasonal precipitation changes, particularly in high and low precipitation categories. Such insights are instrumental for mitigating natural hazards and guiding effective water resource management.