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<p>This research analyzes the asymmetric and lagged onset of meteorological variables on electricity prices for the following Visegrad Group (V4) countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Using the data from 2019 to 2024 obtained by ENTSO-E and national meteorological agencies, we analyze the effects of weather variability on electricity price variance. We use the Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM) for DLNM analysis that accounts for the nonlinear and lagged effects of weather variables on electricity price. Results showed temperature, dew point, wind speed, and relative humidity are impactful, asymmetric, lagged, and country-specific. Low temperatures were consistent in increasing electricity prices due to the need for heating. High temperatures had heterogeneous impacts across the V4. Overall, the research offers practical insights for energy policymakers and market participants, supporting the necessity of weather-sensitive forecasting and pricing strategies as European electricity markets become more integrated.</p>

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Asymmetric weather effects on electricity prices in the V4 countries

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月22日

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  • Rosemary Joseph,
  • Marek Vochozka,
  • Robin Kunju Mol Raj

摘要

This research analyzes the asymmetric and lagged onset of meteorological variables on electricity prices for the following Visegrad Group (V4) countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Using the data from 2019 to 2024 obtained by ENTSO-E and national meteorological agencies, we analyze the effects of weather variability on electricity price variance. We use the Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM) for DLNM analysis that accounts for the nonlinear and lagged effects of weather variables on electricity price. Results showed temperature, dew point, wind speed, and relative humidity are impactful, asymmetric, lagged, and country-specific. Low temperatures were consistent in increasing electricity prices due to the need for heating. High temperatures had heterogeneous impacts across the V4. Overall, the research offers practical insights for energy policymakers and market participants, supporting the necessity of weather-sensitive forecasting and pricing strategies as European electricity markets become more integrated.