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<p>The soaring ecoclimatic events have undermined ecosystem diversity, vegetation health, and crop yield. However, ecological drought, as a vivid manifestation of an ecoclimatic event, is not adequately understood with respect to its spatiotemporal evolutions and risk assessment in a warming climate. Leveraging the simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with modest and higher emission scenarios (i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), we used the standardized ecological water shortage index (SEWDI), based on the ecological water deficit to characterize the ecological drought over Northwestern China (NWC). For assessing the change in risk of ecological drought under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios over NWC, the characteristics of ecological drought were extracted via the three thresholds in run theory, and then the corresponding risk indicators were calculated. Results showed that SEWDI can be utilized to effectively characterize the ecological drought over NWC. The decrement rate of severity for the ecological drought exceeded –0.02/10a over NWC in the middle future (i.e., the period 2051-2075) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The regions with higher (lower) risk of ecological drought were mainly located in the western and central (eastern) parts of NWC under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, especially a larger ecological drought risk would occur under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In comparison with the historical period 1982–2014, the projected ecological drought risk over NWC pronounced increased under these two projected scenarios. These findings have implications for coping with the potential ecoclimatic risk of droughts.</p>

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Increasing ecological drought risks with warming climate over Northwestern China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月13日

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  • Jiangdong Chu,
  • Yuhan Liu,
  • Haijiang Wu,
  • Xiaoling Su,
  • Vijay P. Singh,
  • Tianliang Jiang,
  • Te Zhang,
  • Jiping Niu

摘要

The soaring ecoclimatic events have undermined ecosystem diversity, vegetation health, and crop yield. However, ecological drought, as a vivid manifestation of an ecoclimatic event, is not adequately understood with respect to its spatiotemporal evolutions and risk assessment in a warming climate. Leveraging the simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with modest and higher emission scenarios (i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), we used the standardized ecological water shortage index (SEWDI), based on the ecological water deficit to characterize the ecological drought over Northwestern China (NWC). For assessing the change in risk of ecological drought under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios over NWC, the characteristics of ecological drought were extracted via the three thresholds in run theory, and then the corresponding risk indicators were calculated. Results showed that SEWDI can be utilized to effectively characterize the ecological drought over NWC. The decrement rate of severity for the ecological drought exceeded –0.02/10a over NWC in the middle future (i.e., the period 2051-2075) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The regions with higher (lower) risk of ecological drought were mainly located in the western and central (eastern) parts of NWC under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, especially a larger ecological drought risk would occur under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. In comparison with the historical period 1982–2014, the projected ecological drought risk over NWC pronounced increased under these two projected scenarios. These findings have implications for coping with the potential ecoclimatic risk of droughts.