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<p>Concerns about the rising frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change are particularly relevant given Guinea-Bissau’s reliance on rainfed agriculture. This study investigates spatial and temporal trends in extreme precipitation indices across the country during 1991–2020, using CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data, a satellite- and gauge-based product) and ERA5 (the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis). Both datasets were validated against in-situ stations and the CRU (Climate Research Unit, a gauge-based product). Despite some biases, results confirmed their capacity to represent intra- and interannual precipitation variability (monthly mean correlations &gt; 0.9). Analysis of extreme indices reveals pronounced south-north and west-east gradients, with the highest values consistently in the southern agroecological region; for example, RX5DAY (maximum 5-day precipitation) ranges from 120 to 300&#xa0;mm, with the lowest values (&lt; 160&#xa0;mm) in the North and East, and the highest (&gt; 200&#xa0;mm) in the South. Trend analysis indicates regional contrasts and dataset-dependent discrepancies, underscoring the importance of multi-dataset comparisons for robust conclusions. Notable results include increasing rainfall (by up to + 0.75&#xa0;mm/year) on very wet days (R95P) in the North and South, whereas the East exhibits a decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII, up to -0.1&#xa0;mm/year). These findings highlight significant shifts in Guinea-Bissau’s precipitation regime, with potential impacts ranging from increased flood risk in low-lying coastal zones to heightened water stress for inland rice cultivation. The results provide critical evidence to inform adaptation strategies and strengthen climate resilience in sectors such as agriculture and water management.</p>

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Spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation over Guinea-Bissau, West Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月17日

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  • Ibrahima Diba,
  • Jules Basse,
  • Abdoulaye Deme,
  • Marina Padrão Temudo,
  • Sílvia Carvalho

摘要

Concerns about the rising frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change are particularly relevant given Guinea-Bissau’s reliance on rainfed agriculture. This study investigates spatial and temporal trends in extreme precipitation indices across the country during 1991–2020, using CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data, a satellite- and gauge-based product) and ERA5 (the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis). Both datasets were validated against in-situ stations and the CRU (Climate Research Unit, a gauge-based product). Despite some biases, results confirmed their capacity to represent intra- and interannual precipitation variability (monthly mean correlations > 0.9). Analysis of extreme indices reveals pronounced south-north and west-east gradients, with the highest values consistently in the southern agroecological region; for example, RX5DAY (maximum 5-day precipitation) ranges from 120 to 300 mm, with the lowest values (< 160 mm) in the North and East, and the highest (> 200 mm) in the South. Trend analysis indicates regional contrasts and dataset-dependent discrepancies, underscoring the importance of multi-dataset comparisons for robust conclusions. Notable results include increasing rainfall (by up to + 0.75 mm/year) on very wet days (R95P) in the North and South, whereas the East exhibits a decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII, up to -0.1 mm/year). These findings highlight significant shifts in Guinea-Bissau’s precipitation regime, with potential impacts ranging from increased flood risk in low-lying coastal zones to heightened water stress for inland rice cultivation. The results provide critical evidence to inform adaptation strategies and strengthen climate resilience in sectors such as agriculture and water management.