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<p>With 55% of the global population now urbanized, cities like Delhi face unprecedented natural resource depletion alongside opportunities for ecological recovery. This study introduces a novel integration of Markov Chains, Entropy Analysis, Fragmentation Indices, and Kernel Density estimation to systematically quantify the trade-offs between urban expansion and natural resource loss and recovery in Delhi, India, over three decades (2001–2021) using remote sensing and geospatial analysis. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes were analysed to evaluate urbanization patterns and their impacts on water bodies, vegetation, and cropland. The findings indicate a 220% increase in built-up areas, expanding from 310.4&#xa0;km² in 2001 to 992.5&#xa0;km² in 2021, exceeding the 160% average for South Asian megacities. This expansion primarily occurred at the expense of cropland and open land. Cropland declined by 52.3%, from 730.2&#xa0;km² in 2001 to 348.2&#xa0;km² in 2021, while dense vegetation coverage reduced by 29.7%. Water bodies shrank by 41.5%, highlighting severe hydrological stress due to urban expansion. Fragmentation indices revealed a 17.9% increase in land patch division, reducing the connectivity of natural resources. Shannon’s entropy analysis increased from 0.71 in 2001 to 0.92 in 2021, indicating significant urban sprawl. The loss-recovery analysis revealed that while 15.8% of vegetative cover exhibited regeneration through afforestation and conservation efforts, overall loss of natural resources outpaced recovery, suggesting long-term environmental degradation. The study underscores the urgent need for sustainable urban planning, explicitly advocating for mandatory green infrastructure within zoning laws to offset fragmentation and mitigate adverse impacts of urbanization, thus fostering ecological resilience The research provides data-driven insights for policymakers to develop strategies balancing urban growth with environmental sustainability.</p>

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Quantification of trade-off between urbanization and natural resources loss and recovery: a study of NCT of Delhi

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月30日

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  • Ahmed Ali Bindajam,
  • Javed Mallick,
  • Mohd Waseem Naikoo,
  • Sayanti Poddar,
  • Mohammed J. Alshayeb,
  • Atiqur Rahman

摘要

With 55% of the global population now urbanized, cities like Delhi face unprecedented natural resource depletion alongside opportunities for ecological recovery. This study introduces a novel integration of Markov Chains, Entropy Analysis, Fragmentation Indices, and Kernel Density estimation to systematically quantify the trade-offs between urban expansion and natural resource loss and recovery in Delhi, India, over three decades (2001–2021) using remote sensing and geospatial analysis. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes were analysed to evaluate urbanization patterns and their impacts on water bodies, vegetation, and cropland. The findings indicate a 220% increase in built-up areas, expanding from 310.4 km² in 2001 to 992.5 km² in 2021, exceeding the 160% average for South Asian megacities. This expansion primarily occurred at the expense of cropland and open land. Cropland declined by 52.3%, from 730.2 km² in 2001 to 348.2 km² in 2021, while dense vegetation coverage reduced by 29.7%. Water bodies shrank by 41.5%, highlighting severe hydrological stress due to urban expansion. Fragmentation indices revealed a 17.9% increase in land patch division, reducing the connectivity of natural resources. Shannon’s entropy analysis increased from 0.71 in 2001 to 0.92 in 2021, indicating significant urban sprawl. The loss-recovery analysis revealed that while 15.8% of vegetative cover exhibited regeneration through afforestation and conservation efforts, overall loss of natural resources outpaced recovery, suggesting long-term environmental degradation. The study underscores the urgent need for sustainable urban planning, explicitly advocating for mandatory green infrastructure within zoning laws to offset fragmentation and mitigate adverse impacts of urbanization, thus fostering ecological resilience The research provides data-driven insights for policymakers to develop strategies balancing urban growth with environmental sustainability.