Influence of large-scale climate oscillations on drought patterns in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
摘要
Droughts in semi-arid regions are strongly modulated by large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, which influence rainfall regimes over multiple temporal and spatial scales. This study analyzes the duration and variability of drought events in Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and investigates the role of major climatic teleconnections in modulating these events. SPI was applied at timescales from 1 to 48 months using monthly precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations obtained from the Agricultural Research Company of Rio Grande do Norte (EMPARN) for the period 1963–2023. Teleconnection indices were sourced from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA), and Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA). Pearson correlation and wavelet coherence analyses were used to quantify both linear and time-frequency relationships between SPI and teleconnections. Drought behavior exhibited strong regional contrasts: Central Potiguar experienced persistent long-term droughts, while East and Agreste Potiguar faced frequent short-term droughts. The SPI-12 timescale was most effective in capturing oscillatory signals, with dominant periodicities between 2 and 16 years. The PDO and AMO positive phases were consistently associated with reduced rainfall, while SOI positive phases (La Niña) enhanced precipitation. QBO and TSA impacts were more variable and timescale-dependent. These findings reveal the multiscale nature of drought dynamics in RN and underscore the critical role of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections in shaping hydroclimatic variability in northeastern Brazil. The integration of spectral and correlation-based methods enhances regional drought monitoring and supports more accurate forecasting and climate adaptation strategies.
Graphical abstract