<p>Climate change has drastically impacted rainfall distribution and patterns over the globe in recent decades, leading to severe hydrological and socio-economic imbalances, especially in developing countries such as India. Thus examining rainfall extreme indices plays a vital role in sustainable disaster management and strategies. This study analysed spatio-temporal trends and variation in rainfall extremes using the India Meteorological Department (IMD) observed gridded data (0.25° × 0.25°) for 1991–2022 for the Gandhinagar district of Gujarat. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was used to detect the annual rainfall variability while the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator were used for the statistical significance test. Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) defined selected rainfall extreme indices have been calculated for annual and decadal scales. Results indicated a non-significant increase (1.52&#xa0;mm<sup>−yr</sup>.) in rainfall however a decrease in pre-monsoon while an increase in post-monsoon months has been observed. Though consecutive dry days (CDD) have decreased (-0.86 days<sup>−yr</sup>.) therefore an increase (0.14&#xa0;mm<sup>−yr</sup>.) in moderate and extreme rainy days has been noticed. Days having extreme rainfall (R30mm) exhibit a positive relation with maximum rainfall in consecutive five days (Rx5day). The outcomes of the study highlight the significance of extreme indices variability which may pose a grave risk to sustainable development, ecosystem, water resources, human health and agriculture and establish a scientific basis for future climate research over the Gandhinagar.</p>

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Observed changes in rainfall extremes and current trends in Gandhinagar district, Gujarat

  • Sandeep Kumar,
  • Bhawana Pathak

摘要

Climate change has drastically impacted rainfall distribution and patterns over the globe in recent decades, leading to severe hydrological and socio-economic imbalances, especially in developing countries such as India. Thus examining rainfall extreme indices plays a vital role in sustainable disaster management and strategies. This study analysed spatio-temporal trends and variation in rainfall extremes using the India Meteorological Department (IMD) observed gridded data (0.25° × 0.25°) for 1991–2022 for the Gandhinagar district of Gujarat. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was used to detect the annual rainfall variability while the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator were used for the statistical significance test. Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) defined selected rainfall extreme indices have been calculated for annual and decadal scales. Results indicated a non-significant increase (1.52 mm−yr.) in rainfall however a decrease in pre-monsoon while an increase in post-monsoon months has been observed. Though consecutive dry days (CDD) have decreased (-0.86 days−yr.) therefore an increase (0.14 mm−yr.) in moderate and extreme rainy days has been noticed. Days having extreme rainfall (R30mm) exhibit a positive relation with maximum rainfall in consecutive five days (Rx5day). The outcomes of the study highlight the significance of extreme indices variability which may pose a grave risk to sustainable development, ecosystem, water resources, human health and agriculture and establish a scientific basis for future climate research over the Gandhinagar.