Scholarlink

<p>Climate change is profoundly affecting hydro-meteorological systems by altering precipitation patterns, temperature regimes and hydrological cycles. This study assesses these impacts in the Susurluk Basin, including the ecologically and hydrologically important and Ramsar-protected Uluabat Lake. Future climate projections for the period 2026–2100 were analyzed using the CORDEX_Adjust - which was developed under the framework of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) to enable more localized and accurate use of climate projection data- dataset under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was preferred due to its capacity to simulate watershed processes in detail and its widespread use. The results reveal that (i) there is a significant increase in annual average precipitation and significant seasonal shifts across the basin and (ii) monthly average flows will increase significantly at Dolluk streamflow observation station, especially during the wet season (December-March). The flow increases are calculated as 144.7% in the RCP4.5 scenario and 108.9% in the RCP8.5 scenario. These rates represent the average flow change for the months of the rainy season only. These changes indicate that flood risk may increase, especially during periods of extreme precipitation, posing new challenges for regional water resources management and infrastructure resilience. (iii) This study demonstrates that the SWAT model is an effective tool for modeling hydrological responses to climate change and (iv) provides critical information for adaptation of dam operations, flood risk reduction and development of sustainable water management plans. Through the integration of high-resolution climate projections, the study emphasizes the need for proactive planning to address the impacts of climate change on water resources and provides valuable scientific guidance to policy makers and water managers for the Susurluk Basin and other similar basins.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Hydro-Meteorological shifts under climate change: A case study using CORDEX projections

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月30日

查看全文
  • Gamze Tuncer Evcil,
  • Osman Sonmez,
  • Abdulkadir Baycan

摘要

Climate change is profoundly affecting hydro-meteorological systems by altering precipitation patterns, temperature regimes and hydrological cycles. This study assesses these impacts in the Susurluk Basin, including the ecologically and hydrologically important and Ramsar-protected Uluabat Lake. Future climate projections for the period 2026–2100 were analyzed using the CORDEX_Adjust - which was developed under the framework of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) to enable more localized and accurate use of climate projection data- dataset under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was preferred due to its capacity to simulate watershed processes in detail and its widespread use. The results reveal that (i) there is a significant increase in annual average precipitation and significant seasonal shifts across the basin and (ii) monthly average flows will increase significantly at Dolluk streamflow observation station, especially during the wet season (December-March). The flow increases are calculated as 144.7% in the RCP4.5 scenario and 108.9% in the RCP8.5 scenario. These rates represent the average flow change for the months of the rainy season only. These changes indicate that flood risk may increase, especially during periods of extreme precipitation, posing new challenges for regional water resources management and infrastructure resilience. (iii) This study demonstrates that the SWAT model is an effective tool for modeling hydrological responses to climate change and (iv) provides critical information for adaptation of dam operations, flood risk reduction and development of sustainable water management plans. Through the integration of high-resolution climate projections, the study emphasizes the need for proactive planning to address the impacts of climate change on water resources and provides valuable scientific guidance to policy makers and water managers for the Susurluk Basin and other similar basins.