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<p>Extreme hot ambient conditions and their associated heat intensity, particularly in arid environments, can have an adverse impact on several sectors, such as agriculture, public health and the achievement of sustainability goals. This study uses NASA/POWER data from 2014 to 2023 to investigate the spatiotemporal variation in the frequency of extreme maximum temperature (EMT) and average extreme heat intensity (AEHI) across six Iraqi cities: Basra, Baghdad, Kirkuk, Shanafiya, Rutba and Shakhan. The objective of this paper is to detect extreme exceedances and their frequency, as well as the average AEHI, using the 95th percentile method. A comprehensive analysis of seasonal trends reveals substantial variability across the four seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn), with spring consistently exhibiting the highest AEHI across all locations, as well as displaying an upward trend in most seasons. In contrast, autumn and spring exhibit irregular and location-specific patterns. The annual average AEHI values indicated a progressive increase, particularly from 2019 onwards, with Shakhan recording the highest multi-year averages. The overall seasonal averages of AEHI in Iraq were 1.4, 1.43, 0.72 and 0.96&#xa0;°C respectively, and its areal average across all cities studied is 1.13&#xa0;°C over the last decade. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate adaptation policies and localized heat mitigation strategies to address the intensifying impacts on public health, agriculture and urban sustainability in the context of broader climatic warming in Iraq.</p>

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A new metric: average extreme heat intensity used as indication of climate change signals in arid environment (Iraq)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月30日

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  • Ola J. Qasim,
  • Mohammed Hazim Khaleel,
  • Monim H. Al-Jiboori

摘要

Extreme hot ambient conditions and their associated heat intensity, particularly in arid environments, can have an adverse impact on several sectors, such as agriculture, public health and the achievement of sustainability goals. This study uses NASA/POWER data from 2014 to 2023 to investigate the spatiotemporal variation in the frequency of extreme maximum temperature (EMT) and average extreme heat intensity (AEHI) across six Iraqi cities: Basra, Baghdad, Kirkuk, Shanafiya, Rutba and Shakhan. The objective of this paper is to detect extreme exceedances and their frequency, as well as the average AEHI, using the 95th percentile method. A comprehensive analysis of seasonal trends reveals substantial variability across the four seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn), with spring consistently exhibiting the highest AEHI across all locations, as well as displaying an upward trend in most seasons. In contrast, autumn and spring exhibit irregular and location-specific patterns. The annual average AEHI values indicated a progressive increase, particularly from 2019 onwards, with Shakhan recording the highest multi-year averages. The overall seasonal averages of AEHI in Iraq were 1.4, 1.43, 0.72 and 0.96 °C respectively, and its areal average across all cities studied is 1.13 °C over the last decade. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate adaptation policies and localized heat mitigation strategies to address the intensifying impacts on public health, agriculture and urban sustainability in the context of broader climatic warming in Iraq.