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<p>The paper investigated the impact of biocapacity, annual maximum number of consecutive dry days, annual number of days with heat index &gt; 35&#xa0;°C, precipitation, mean temperature, readiness index on the yield levels of selected underutilized crops such as cowpea, fonio, and sesame seed in Nigeria for a period of 26 years (1995–2020). The study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Im–Pesaran–Shin unit-root tests to determine the stationarity of the data, the bounds test for cointegration and the symmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. All the three ARDL crop models were structurally stable, and they exhibited both short-run and long-run relationships. Specifically, biocapacity increased cowpea yield in the short but decreased fonio yield in the short run. The annual maximum number of consecutive dry days rainfall decreased cowpea and fonio production in the short run. The annual number of days with heat index &gt; 35&#xa0;°C increased fonio and cowpea production in the short run, while the annual number of days with heat index &gt; 35&#xa0;°C decreased sesame seeds production in the short run. Annual precipitation significantly decreased sesame seeds production in the short run, while precipitation increased fonio production in the short run. The empirical findings indicate that temperature significantly decreased cowpean and fonio production in the short run. Readiness index significantly decreased cowpea yield in the short run but increased fonio production in the short run. The long run estimates indicate that biocapacity exhibited significant long run negative impacts on fonio and cowpea yields. However, its impact on sesame was positive and insignificant in the long run. The annual maximum number of consecutive dry days had a positive impact on fonio yield in the long run while the annual number of days with heat index &gt; 35&#xa0;°C significantly decreased cowpea and fonio production but significantly increased sesame seed production in the long run. Precipitation significantly increased sesame seed yield in the long run, while temperature significantly increased cowpea and fonio production in the long run. The readiness index produced mixed results. It significantly increased cowpea production, insignificantly increased sesame seed production, but significantly decreased fonio production in the long run. The study reveals crop-specific responses, with biocapacity and extreme heat reducing fonio and cowpea yields, while sesame shows greater resilience. The mixed effects of the readiness index highlight institutional disparities in climate adaptation. The findings offer valuable insights for promoting climate-smart agriculture and improving the resilience of neglected crops. We recommended policies and programs that would increase the readiness of Nigeria to respond climate change and promote resilience of the underutilized crops to climate change.</p>

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Assessing the impact of climatic factors on underutilized crops: novel evidence from Nigeria

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月23日

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  • Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke,
  • Nneka Maris Chidiebere-Mark,
  • Igwe Ikenna Ukoha,
  • Chinenye Judith Onyeneke,
  • Peter Agu Onoh

摘要

The paper investigated the impact of biocapacity, annual maximum number of consecutive dry days, annual number of days with heat index > 35 °C, precipitation, mean temperature, readiness index on the yield levels of selected underutilized crops such as cowpea, fonio, and sesame seed in Nigeria for a period of 26 years (1995–2020). The study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Im–Pesaran–Shin unit-root tests to determine the stationarity of the data, the bounds test for cointegration and the symmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. All the three ARDL crop models were structurally stable, and they exhibited both short-run and long-run relationships. Specifically, biocapacity increased cowpea yield in the short but decreased fonio yield in the short run. The annual maximum number of consecutive dry days rainfall decreased cowpea and fonio production in the short run. The annual number of days with heat index > 35 °C increased fonio and cowpea production in the short run, while the annual number of days with heat index > 35 °C decreased sesame seeds production in the short run. Annual precipitation significantly decreased sesame seeds production in the short run, while precipitation increased fonio production in the short run. The empirical findings indicate that temperature significantly decreased cowpean and fonio production in the short run. Readiness index significantly decreased cowpea yield in the short run but increased fonio production in the short run. The long run estimates indicate that biocapacity exhibited significant long run negative impacts on fonio and cowpea yields. However, its impact on sesame was positive and insignificant in the long run. The annual maximum number of consecutive dry days had a positive impact on fonio yield in the long run while the annual number of days with heat index > 35 °C significantly decreased cowpea and fonio production but significantly increased sesame seed production in the long run. Precipitation significantly increased sesame seed yield in the long run, while temperature significantly increased cowpea and fonio production in the long run. The readiness index produced mixed results. It significantly increased cowpea production, insignificantly increased sesame seed production, but significantly decreased fonio production in the long run. The study reveals crop-specific responses, with biocapacity and extreme heat reducing fonio and cowpea yields, while sesame shows greater resilience. The mixed effects of the readiness index highlight institutional disparities in climate adaptation. The findings offer valuable insights for promoting climate-smart agriculture and improving the resilience of neglected crops. We recommended policies and programs that would increase the readiness of Nigeria to respond climate change and promote resilience of the underutilized crops to climate change.