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<p>This study analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Serbia from 1961 to 2020. Shannon entropy, a robust method for quantifying the unpredictability of precipitation, is used in this study. The interplay between topography, climatic influences, and precipitation patterns is investigated by analyzing annual and decadal entropy trends at 24 well-distributed synoptic stations. A clear north-south gradient in precipitation entropy is observed in Serbia. The southwestern part of Serbia showed the highest entropy values (3.7–4.1), which can be attributed to mountainous terrain and Mediterranean air mass interactions. In contrast, the northern part of Serbia showed a lower entropy (3.2–3.5), which is due to a stable continental climate. Precipitation entropy in the southern and central parts of Serbia increased significantly after 1990. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope trend analysis revealed statistically significant increasing trends at Veliko Gradište over the full period (1961–2020) (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). The results of the study highlight the vulnerability of Serbia to extreme weather events (e.g., heavy precipitation, drought, and flood), and emphasize the importance of region-specific adaptation strategies, especially in water resource management and agricultural planning.</p>

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Entropy analysis of precipitation variability in Serbia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月8日

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  • Mohammad Arab Amiri,
  • Milan Gocić

摘要

This study analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Serbia from 1961 to 2020. Shannon entropy, a robust method for quantifying the unpredictability of precipitation, is used in this study. The interplay between topography, climatic influences, and precipitation patterns is investigated by analyzing annual and decadal entropy trends at 24 well-distributed synoptic stations. A clear north-south gradient in precipitation entropy is observed in Serbia. The southwestern part of Serbia showed the highest entropy values (3.7–4.1), which can be attributed to mountainous terrain and Mediterranean air mass interactions. In contrast, the northern part of Serbia showed a lower entropy (3.2–3.5), which is due to a stable continental climate. Precipitation entropy in the southern and central parts of Serbia increased significantly after 1990. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope trend analysis revealed statistically significant increasing trends at Veliko Gradište over the full period (1961–2020) (p < 0.05). The results of the study highlight the vulnerability of Serbia to extreme weather events (e.g., heavy precipitation, drought, and flood), and emphasize the importance of region-specific adaptation strategies, especially in water resource management and agricultural planning.