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<p>This study investigated the farmers’ perception of climate variability in Gicumbi district. Rainfall and temperature data from 1983 to 2021 were obtained from the Rwanda Meteorology Agency (METEO-RWANDA), and information on farmers’ perception were collected through Focus Group Discussions (FGD). Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used for trend analysis and coefficient of variation to ascertain the variability for March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November-December (SOND) seasons. Onset dates (OD) were computed using rainfall and dry spell criteria, whereas cessation dates (CD) were generated using the rainfall and evapotranspiration relationship. The OD ranges from 21st February to 11th March during MAM and 7th September to 9th October during SOND. The CD spans between 20th May and 1st June during MAM and 4th to 16th December during SOND. Rainy days (RD) and growing seasonal length (GSL) ranges from 32 to 60 days and 71 to 98 days during MAM and, 31 to 59 days and 71 to 98 during SOND. For temporal variation, OD ranges from 23 to 39% during MAM and 7–12% for SOND. RD varies between 18% and 42% during MAM and 25–50% for SOND and GSL varies from 16 to 39% during MAM and 21–41% for SOND. Longest dry spell (LDS) varies from 24 to 87% for MAM and 25–48% for SOND. Significant increase is observed for maximum temperature (Tx, 0.022&#xa0;°C) during SOND and minimum temperature (Tn, 0.031&#xa0;°C, 0.029&#xa0;°C), mean temperature (T, 0.030&#xa0;°C, 0.029&#xa0;°C) for MAM and SOND seasons. It is revealed that farmers’ perceptions align with the observational data. For OD, farmers perceive that it occurs during early March (54%), late February (38%) and mid to end March (8%) during MAM. For SOND, it occurs during mid to late September (59%), late September to early October (27%) and early September (14%). For CDs, it occurs during late May (79.75%) and early June (18%) during MAM and early December (59.5%), mid-December and (21.25%). A decreasing trend in LWS and an increasing trend in LDS were reported by 98.75% and 96.5% of respondent respectively. The majority of farmers are aware of climate variability (95%), climate information from METEO-RWANDA (96%) and link climate variability with seasonal agricultural production (81%). The finding will help farmers and decision makers to formulate adaptation and mitigation measures to improve the farming practices.</p>

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Assessing farmer’s perception on climate variability in gicumbi district, Northern province, Rwanda

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月18日

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  • William Mugabo,
  • Joseph Ndakize Sebaziga,
  • Justin Munyaneza,
  • Bernard Niyigena,
  • Christoph Mupenzi,
  • Godfrey Musafiri,
  • Placide Bienaimé Hashimwimana,
  • Kazora Jonah

摘要

This study investigated the farmers’ perception of climate variability in Gicumbi district. Rainfall and temperature data from 1983 to 2021 were obtained from the Rwanda Meteorology Agency (METEO-RWANDA), and information on farmers’ perception were collected through Focus Group Discussions (FGD). Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used for trend analysis and coefficient of variation to ascertain the variability for March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November-December (SOND) seasons. Onset dates (OD) were computed using rainfall and dry spell criteria, whereas cessation dates (CD) were generated using the rainfall and evapotranspiration relationship. The OD ranges from 21st February to 11th March during MAM and 7th September to 9th October during SOND. The CD spans between 20th May and 1st June during MAM and 4th to 16th December during SOND. Rainy days (RD) and growing seasonal length (GSL) ranges from 32 to 60 days and 71 to 98 days during MAM and, 31 to 59 days and 71 to 98 during SOND. For temporal variation, OD ranges from 23 to 39% during MAM and 7–12% for SOND. RD varies between 18% and 42% during MAM and 25–50% for SOND and GSL varies from 16 to 39% during MAM and 21–41% for SOND. Longest dry spell (LDS) varies from 24 to 87% for MAM and 25–48% for SOND. Significant increase is observed for maximum temperature (Tx, 0.022 °C) during SOND and minimum temperature (Tn, 0.031 °C, 0.029 °C), mean temperature (T, 0.030 °C, 0.029 °C) for MAM and SOND seasons. It is revealed that farmers’ perceptions align with the observational data. For OD, farmers perceive that it occurs during early March (54%), late February (38%) and mid to end March (8%) during MAM. For SOND, it occurs during mid to late September (59%), late September to early October (27%) and early September (14%). For CDs, it occurs during late May (79.75%) and early June (18%) during MAM and early December (59.5%), mid-December and (21.25%). A decreasing trend in LWS and an increasing trend in LDS were reported by 98.75% and 96.5% of respondent respectively. The majority of farmers are aware of climate variability (95%), climate information from METEO-RWANDA (96%) and link climate variability with seasonal agricultural production (81%). The finding will help farmers and decision makers to formulate adaptation and mitigation measures to improve the farming practices.