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<p>Sea-level rise (SLR) represents a critical global challenge of the 21st century, driven by climate change and resulting in rapid polar ice melt and seawater thermal expansion. The accelerated rate of SLR, from 1.3&#xa0;mm/year (1901–1971) to 3.7&#xa0;mm/year (2006–2018), threatens ecosystems, infrastructure, and livelihoods. India’s 7,500&#xa0;km coastline is particularly vulnerable, with escalating risks of flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion. This study leverages PSMSL and NOAA altimetry data (1992–2023) to analyze observed relative sea-level trends along India’s coastline, highlighting regional variations between the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (ARS). Future projections utilize SimCLIM AR6, incorporating CMIP6 data and 39 GCMs under various SSP scenarios. Cyclone activity trends (1991–2023) were assessed using IMD datasets. MSL trends along India’s coastline reveal significant spatial and temporal variability, with higher interannual fluctuations in the BoB compared to the ARS. The BOB’s accelerated sea-level rise highlights its vulnerability, demanding region-specific adaptation strategies. SimCLIM projections under IPCC AR6 scenarios reveal substantial SLR variability along India’s coast, ranging from 25.72&#xa0;cm (low emissions) to 110.2&#xa0;cm (high emissions) by 2100. Eastern coastal regions, including Sundarbans and Visakhapatnam, face amplified risks, necessitating targeted adaptation strategies. The observed pattern of cyclone analysis (1991–2023) reveals 62 systems in the BoB versus 9 in the ARS, with 67.3% of severe cyclones post-monsoon. Storm surge impacts exacerbate coastal vulnerabilities, demanding advanced modeling, resilient infrastructure, and mangrove restoration for effective mitigation. Adapting to SLR demands integrated strategies, blending engineering solutions, nature-based interventions, and community engagement to protect coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure while enhancing long-term resilience. Addressing the challenges of sea-level rise requires a multifaceted approach, combining scientific projections, adaptive strategies, and community engagement to safeguard India’s vulnerable coastal regions.</p>

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Projection of climate-induced sea level rise under SSP scenarios of AR6 and influences of extremities over Indian Coast

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月30日

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  • Ramachandran A,
  • Ahamed Ibrahim S N,
  • Madavi Venkatesh,
  • Nivetha S,
  • Pavithrapriya S,
  • Ponmozhi A,
  • Thirumurugan P

摘要

Sea-level rise (SLR) represents a critical global challenge of the 21st century, driven by climate change and resulting in rapid polar ice melt and seawater thermal expansion. The accelerated rate of SLR, from 1.3 mm/year (1901–1971) to 3.7 mm/year (2006–2018), threatens ecosystems, infrastructure, and livelihoods. India’s 7,500 km coastline is particularly vulnerable, with escalating risks of flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion. This study leverages PSMSL and NOAA altimetry data (1992–2023) to analyze observed relative sea-level trends along India’s coastline, highlighting regional variations between the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (ARS). Future projections utilize SimCLIM AR6, incorporating CMIP6 data and 39 GCMs under various SSP scenarios. Cyclone activity trends (1991–2023) were assessed using IMD datasets. MSL trends along India’s coastline reveal significant spatial and temporal variability, with higher interannual fluctuations in the BoB compared to the ARS. The BOB’s accelerated sea-level rise highlights its vulnerability, demanding region-specific adaptation strategies. SimCLIM projections under IPCC AR6 scenarios reveal substantial SLR variability along India’s coast, ranging from 25.72 cm (low emissions) to 110.2 cm (high emissions) by 2100. Eastern coastal regions, including Sundarbans and Visakhapatnam, face amplified risks, necessitating targeted adaptation strategies. The observed pattern of cyclone analysis (1991–2023) reveals 62 systems in the BoB versus 9 in the ARS, with 67.3% of severe cyclones post-monsoon. Storm surge impacts exacerbate coastal vulnerabilities, demanding advanced modeling, resilient infrastructure, and mangrove restoration for effective mitigation. Adapting to SLR demands integrated strategies, blending engineering solutions, nature-based interventions, and community engagement to protect coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure while enhancing long-term resilience. Addressing the challenges of sea-level rise requires a multifaceted approach, combining scientific projections, adaptive strategies, and community engagement to safeguard India’s vulnerable coastal regions.