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<p>Climate variability, particularly shifts in rainfall patterns, presents significant challenges to regions reliant on rain-fed agriculture in Rwanda. This study investigates rainfall variability and trends in Huye District, using data from 1983 to 2021 obtained from Rwanda Meteorology Agency. The study analysed data at seasonal, annual, zonal scales and identified near-homogeneous climate zones using K-means clustering techniques. Rainfall variability was assessed using the coefficient of variation (CV) at both seasonal and annual levels, while trends were analysed using the Modified Mann-Kendall test and Theil- Sen’s slope estimator. The analysis revealed four distinct climate zones across the district. Zone 3 exhibited the highest rainfall variability during the June–July–August (JJA) dry season, reflecting unstable weather conditions that complicate agricultural planning and crop management decisions. In contrast, Zone 1 recorded the lowest variability, particularly during the January–February (JF) season, indicating more reliable rainfall patterns. Regarding long-term trends, Zone 4 exhibited a statistically significant annual decline in rainfall, raising concerns over increasing drought risk and water scarcity. Conversely, Zone 3 displayed a positive rainfall trend during the March–April–May (MAM) season, suggesting possible shifts in rainfall onset or intensity. These spatial and temporal differences underscore the critical need for zone-specific adaptation strategies and toiled to local climate conditions. In Zone 3, enhancing water harvesting, storage infrastructure, and flexible planting calendars can mitigate the impacts of high seasonal variability. In Zone 1, promoting drought-tolerant crop varieties, soil moisture conservation, and small-scale irrigation is essential to counter long-term drying. In Zone 2, maintaining current practices while gradually integrating climate-smart agriculture will help sustain resilience. The findings emphasize the paramount importance of localized climate analysis in developing evidence-based adaptation measures. By understanding zone-specific climate patterns and trends, stakeholders can implement targeted strategies to strengthen agricultural resilience and food security in Huye District.</p>

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Assessing rainfall variability and trends for improving agricultural resilience in Huye district, Rwanda

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月11日

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  • Sylvere Kubwimana,
  • Ndakize Joseph Sebaziga,
  • Christophe Mupenzi,
  • Evariste Uzabakiriho,
  • Euphrosine Muyizere,
  • Angele Uwimana,
  • Pierre Celestin Kambanda,
  • Theoneste Mbonigaba,
  • John Nshyimyumukiza,
  • Anthony Twahirwa

摘要

Climate variability, particularly shifts in rainfall patterns, presents significant challenges to regions reliant on rain-fed agriculture in Rwanda. This study investigates rainfall variability and trends in Huye District, using data from 1983 to 2021 obtained from Rwanda Meteorology Agency. The study analysed data at seasonal, annual, zonal scales and identified near-homogeneous climate zones using K-means clustering techniques. Rainfall variability was assessed using the coefficient of variation (CV) at both seasonal and annual levels, while trends were analysed using the Modified Mann-Kendall test and Theil- Sen’s slope estimator. The analysis revealed four distinct climate zones across the district. Zone 3 exhibited the highest rainfall variability during the June–July–August (JJA) dry season, reflecting unstable weather conditions that complicate agricultural planning and crop management decisions. In contrast, Zone 1 recorded the lowest variability, particularly during the January–February (JF) season, indicating more reliable rainfall patterns. Regarding long-term trends, Zone 4 exhibited a statistically significant annual decline in rainfall, raising concerns over increasing drought risk and water scarcity. Conversely, Zone 3 displayed a positive rainfall trend during the March–April–May (MAM) season, suggesting possible shifts in rainfall onset or intensity. These spatial and temporal differences underscore the critical need for zone-specific adaptation strategies and toiled to local climate conditions. In Zone 3, enhancing water harvesting, storage infrastructure, and flexible planting calendars can mitigate the impacts of high seasonal variability. In Zone 1, promoting drought-tolerant crop varieties, soil moisture conservation, and small-scale irrigation is essential to counter long-term drying. In Zone 2, maintaining current practices while gradually integrating climate-smart agriculture will help sustain resilience. The findings emphasize the paramount importance of localized climate analysis in developing evidence-based adaptation measures. By understanding zone-specific climate patterns and trends, stakeholders can implement targeted strategies to strengthen agricultural resilience and food security in Huye District.