Temporal and Spatial variation characteristics of meteorological drought and agricultural drought on the Yunnan-Guizhou plateau across multiple time scales
摘要
Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, located in the southwest region of China, experiences irregular precipitation patterns, making it particularly vulnerable to seasonal droughts that threaten food security. The interaction of meteorological droughts with agricultural droughts on the plateau remains unclear. This paper utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological drought characterization and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) for agricultural drought assessment. The study concentrated on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau from 2001 to 2022, utilizing Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis to evaluate trends in SPEI and VHI. It employed the Hurst exponent to analyze drought persistence and the gravity center migration model is used to study the migration of drought centers. Additionally, the study used cross-wavelet and wavelet coherence techniques to examine their respective lagged effects and correlations. There are three main findings in our study. (i) Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau experiences an increasing trend of drought, characterized by southwestern Yunnan Province exhibiting a meteorological drought trend in spring, and western Yunnan Province showing an agricultural drought trend in autumn. (ii) The average Hurst exponents of SPEI and VHI are 0.40 and 0.41, respectively, exhibiting anti-persistence, which suggests that drought conditions on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau will not persist for an extended period; the centers of drought are mainly concentrated in the central-eastern and northwestern regions of Yunnan Province. (iii) The transition period from meteorological drought to agricultural drought on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is approximately 4 months. The relationship of SPEI with VHI varies across different seasons: they exhibited a positive correlation in spring from 2005 to 2007, whereas they demonstrated a negative correlation in autumn from 2008 to 2012.