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<p>The Yellow River Basin is a major agricultural production area in China, and the security of maize production in this region is of strategic importance for ensuring national food security. This study constructs a drought disaster risk evaluation index system for the maize growth stages and integrates the Optimal Parameter-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) model to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity patterns and dominant risk factors of maize drought risk in the Yellow River Basin. Results indicate that high-hazard areas of drought disaster are primarily distributed in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, exhibiting a contracting trend from southeast to northwest from the sowing-to-emergence stage (G1) to the milk-ripening-to-maturity stage (G5). The high-exposure areas are concentrated in the irrigated zones along the Yellow River (Ningxia Plain, Hetao Irrigation District, Guanzhong Plain, and downstream irrigated areas). The high-vulnerability areas are centered on the Ningxia Plain and Northern Shaanxi Plateau, with vulnerability peaking during the emergence-to-jointing stage (G2). The high-sensitivity areas are located in the central-northern part of the middle reaches. During the tasseling-to-milk-ripening stage (G4), sensitivity is highest in the upper/middle reaches, while during the milk-ripening-to-maturity stage (G5), sensitivity is most pronounced in the downstream regions. The high-drought-risk areas are predominantly located in the upper reaches and northern middle reaches, with their spatial extent progressively contracting northwestward as the maize growth stages progresses. Risk peaks occur during G2 in the upper reaches, G1-G2 in the middle reaches, and G1/G5 in the downstream region. OPGD model analysis reveals that risk in the upper reaches is dominated by hazard and vulnerability components, while exposure is the dominant components in the middle and lower reaches. Hazard primarily determines the overall spatial pattern of risk, whereas vulnerability/sensitivity/exposure components shape the localized characteristics. The fine-scale evaluation framework for maize growth stages developed in this study is fundamentally distinct from approaches based on administrative units or macro-scale indicators, offering a scientific basis for customized mitigation strategies in the Yellow River Basin.</p>

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Analysis of maize drought risk characteristics and dominant risk factors based on crop growth stage in the Yellow River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月29日

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  • Ying Wang,
  • Jianshun Wang,
  • Yue Zhou

摘要

The Yellow River Basin is a major agricultural production area in China, and the security of maize production in this region is of strategic importance for ensuring national food security. This study constructs a drought disaster risk evaluation index system for the maize growth stages and integrates the Optimal Parameter-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) model to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity patterns and dominant risk factors of maize drought risk in the Yellow River Basin. Results indicate that high-hazard areas of drought disaster are primarily distributed in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, exhibiting a contracting trend from southeast to northwest from the sowing-to-emergence stage (G1) to the milk-ripening-to-maturity stage (G5). The high-exposure areas are concentrated in the irrigated zones along the Yellow River (Ningxia Plain, Hetao Irrigation District, Guanzhong Plain, and downstream irrigated areas). The high-vulnerability areas are centered on the Ningxia Plain and Northern Shaanxi Plateau, with vulnerability peaking during the emergence-to-jointing stage (G2). The high-sensitivity areas are located in the central-northern part of the middle reaches. During the tasseling-to-milk-ripening stage (G4), sensitivity is highest in the upper/middle reaches, while during the milk-ripening-to-maturity stage (G5), sensitivity is most pronounced in the downstream regions. The high-drought-risk areas are predominantly located in the upper reaches and northern middle reaches, with their spatial extent progressively contracting northwestward as the maize growth stages progresses. Risk peaks occur during G2 in the upper reaches, G1-G2 in the middle reaches, and G1/G5 in the downstream region. OPGD model analysis reveals that risk in the upper reaches is dominated by hazard and vulnerability components, while exposure is the dominant components in the middle and lower reaches. Hazard primarily determines the overall spatial pattern of risk, whereas vulnerability/sensitivity/exposure components shape the localized characteristics. The fine-scale evaluation framework for maize growth stages developed in this study is fundamentally distinct from approaches based on administrative units or macro-scale indicators, offering a scientific basis for customized mitigation strategies in the Yellow River Basin.