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<p>In climate change scenarios the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events (HRE) are on the rise over the Indian region. However, no studies are available to quantify the variability of these HREs across the capital cities of India. This study aims to fill this gap and investigates HREs across different capital cities and their neighbourhood region (100&#xa0;km radius) for different homogeneous regions, using India Meteorological Department (IMD) long-term data sets (i.e. 100&#xa0;years, 1922–2022). Results suggest that North-eastern (NE) and central India (CI) areas, including cities, i.e., Panaji, Gangtok, Mumbai, Dispur, and Shillong, emerge as hotspots of HREs and very heavy rainfall events (VHRE) with higher frequencies and intensities. Whereas, southern peninsular (SP) and north-western (NW) regions exhibit relatively stable trends. Region-wise probability density function suggests that the maximum density of the HREs and VHREs lies between 65-75&#xa0;mm/day and 125-150&#xa0;mm/day respectively. Decadal Analysis of HRE and VHRE reveals a distinct increase in the number of HREs and VHREs per decaade for Mumbai (7.29,3.03), Shillong (18.49,19.71), Dispur (7.98,3.95), and Panaji (13.71,5.29), signalling a growing prevalence of severe events over these locations. Overall results suggest that most of HREs are VHREs are localized in nature, however, few cities in CI and NE are showing significant widespread events. Interestingly, consecutive two days’ events, contributions are predominant in terms of volumetric rainfall are distinct over major cities i.e. Mumbai, Panaji, Gangtok, Shillong, and Dispur. Trend rainfall anomaly(mm/day) under HRE and VHRE suggested that Mumbai and Shillong are showing significant increasing intensity of VHRE in recent decades (i.e., 2002–2022).</p>

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Characteristics of heavy rainfall occurrences over the capital cities of India and their adjacent regions using long-term datasets

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月15日

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  • Pragatika Panda,
  • Sandeep Pattnaik

摘要

In climate change scenarios the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events (HRE) are on the rise over the Indian region. However, no studies are available to quantify the variability of these HREs across the capital cities of India. This study aims to fill this gap and investigates HREs across different capital cities and their neighbourhood region (100 km radius) for different homogeneous regions, using India Meteorological Department (IMD) long-term data sets (i.e. 100 years, 1922–2022). Results suggest that North-eastern (NE) and central India (CI) areas, including cities, i.e., Panaji, Gangtok, Mumbai, Dispur, and Shillong, emerge as hotspots of HREs and very heavy rainfall events (VHRE) with higher frequencies and intensities. Whereas, southern peninsular (SP) and north-western (NW) regions exhibit relatively stable trends. Region-wise probability density function suggests that the maximum density of the HREs and VHREs lies between 65-75 mm/day and 125-150 mm/day respectively. Decadal Analysis of HRE and VHRE reveals a distinct increase in the number of HREs and VHREs per decaade for Mumbai (7.29,3.03), Shillong (18.49,19.71), Dispur (7.98,3.95), and Panaji (13.71,5.29), signalling a growing prevalence of severe events over these locations. Overall results suggest that most of HREs are VHREs are localized in nature, however, few cities in CI and NE are showing significant widespread events. Interestingly, consecutive two days’ events, contributions are predominant in terms of volumetric rainfall are distinct over major cities i.e. Mumbai, Panaji, Gangtok, Shillong, and Dispur. Trend rainfall anomaly(mm/day) under HRE and VHRE suggested that Mumbai and Shillong are showing significant increasing intensity of VHRE in recent decades (i.e., 2002–2022).