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<p>Precipitation forecasting in areas with complex topography is challenging due to rugged terrain and its influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation. This paper aims to improve precipitation forecasts from the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model by using windward effect index maps that account for the terrain’s impact on precipitation patterns. The methodology involves interpolating observed precipitation data from SHMI (Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute) rain gauge stations, calculating a windward effect index based on all days with northwesterly (NWc) and northerly (Nc) cyclonic synoptic situations from 1991 to 2020, and analyzing selected NWc and Nc events from recent years. Subsequently, WRF model forecasts were adjusted using the derived windward effect index maps, increasing precipitation in windward areas and decreasing it in leeward zones. The corrections were validated against observed precipitation totals, demonstrating an improvement in forecast accuracy, with the coefficient of determination (R²) increasing by an average of 3.7% for NWc and 3.8% for Nc. Case studies of selected events highlighted the most significant improvements in mountainous regions of northern Slovakia, where such synoptic patterns typically produce the highest precipitation totals. The results confirm the effectiveness of using windward effect index maps to correct precipitation forecasts and underscore the potential of this methodology for other regions with similar climatic and topographical characteristics.</p>

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Exploiting the windward and leeward precipitation effect of northern and northwestern cyclonic types to correct WRF numerical model predicted precipitation totals

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月21日

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  • Peter Zaujec,
  • Tomáš Fedor,
  • Martin Halaj,
  • Milan Onderka

摘要

Precipitation forecasting in areas with complex topography is challenging due to rugged terrain and its influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation. This paper aims to improve precipitation forecasts from the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model by using windward effect index maps that account for the terrain’s impact on precipitation patterns. The methodology involves interpolating observed precipitation data from SHMI (Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute) rain gauge stations, calculating a windward effect index based on all days with northwesterly (NWc) and northerly (Nc) cyclonic synoptic situations from 1991 to 2020, and analyzing selected NWc and Nc events from recent years. Subsequently, WRF model forecasts were adjusted using the derived windward effect index maps, increasing precipitation in windward areas and decreasing it in leeward zones. The corrections were validated against observed precipitation totals, demonstrating an improvement in forecast accuracy, with the coefficient of determination (R²) increasing by an average of 3.7% for NWc and 3.8% for Nc. Case studies of selected events highlighted the most significant improvements in mountainous regions of northern Slovakia, where such synoptic patterns typically produce the highest precipitation totals. The results confirm the effectiveness of using windward effect index maps to correct precipitation forecasts and underscore the potential of this methodology for other regions with similar climatic and topographical characteristics.