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<p>This study investigates the impact of climate change on the agroclimatic zoning of castor bean (<i>Ricinus communis L.</i>) cultivation in South America, emphasizing its significance for biofuel production. Historical climate data and future projections from the CMIP6 model were utilized, examining various climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.0, and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2021–2100. The analysis focused on temperature and rainfall as primary parameters, with an integrated approach to zoning to ensure comprehensive coverage. Seasonal zoning variations were illustrated using graphs, while Pearson’s correlation assessed the relationship between historical climate conditions and castor bean yield in South America, highlighting the effects of climate change. A graph showing the percentage variation in agroclimatic zoning classes under different climate scenarios revealed significant changes in areas suitable for cultivation. Under severe scenarios, such as SSP5-8.5, “Optimal” areas decreased from 14.1% (2021–2040) to 4.9% (2081–2100) due to rising temperatures. Simultaneously, areas classified as “Marginal due to High Temperatures” increased from 11.2 to 29.4% over the same period. Castor bean yield exhibited strong correlations with ideal climate conditions, with coefficients of 0.99 in “Optimal” areas and 0.88 in “Very Suitable” areas. Conversely, regions impacted by high temperatures showed a negative correlation of approximately − 1.00, indicating severe yield declines as temperatures rise. The study concludes that without adaptive strategies, such as efficient irrigation and heat-tolerant cultivars, castor bean production will face critical challenges, particularly in regions currently deemed most suitable for cultivation. This highlights the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation measures to sustain castor bean production under changing climatic conditions.</p>

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Climate challenges in castor bean production: agroclimatic zoning and future prospects for sustainable biofuel

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月2日

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  • Guilherme Botega Torsoni,
  • Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido,
  • João Antonio Lorençone,
  • Pedro Antonio Lorençone,
  • Glauco de Souza Rolim

摘要

This study investigates the impact of climate change on the agroclimatic zoning of castor bean (Ricinus communis L.) cultivation in South America, emphasizing its significance for biofuel production. Historical climate data and future projections from the CMIP6 model were utilized, examining various climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.0, and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2021–2100. The analysis focused on temperature and rainfall as primary parameters, with an integrated approach to zoning to ensure comprehensive coverage. Seasonal zoning variations were illustrated using graphs, while Pearson’s correlation assessed the relationship between historical climate conditions and castor bean yield in South America, highlighting the effects of climate change. A graph showing the percentage variation in agroclimatic zoning classes under different climate scenarios revealed significant changes in areas suitable for cultivation. Under severe scenarios, such as SSP5-8.5, “Optimal” areas decreased from 14.1% (2021–2040) to 4.9% (2081–2100) due to rising temperatures. Simultaneously, areas classified as “Marginal due to High Temperatures” increased from 11.2 to 29.4% over the same period. Castor bean yield exhibited strong correlations with ideal climate conditions, with coefficients of 0.99 in “Optimal” areas and 0.88 in “Very Suitable” areas. Conversely, regions impacted by high temperatures showed a negative correlation of approximately − 1.00, indicating severe yield declines as temperatures rise. The study concludes that without adaptive strategies, such as efficient irrigation and heat-tolerant cultivars, castor bean production will face critical challenges, particularly in regions currently deemed most suitable for cultivation. This highlights the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation measures to sustain castor bean production under changing climatic conditions.