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<p>This study analyzes the variability and trends of frost indices (1971–2020) using daily temperature data from 40 meteorological stations, combined with linear regression, Mann–Kendall trend tests (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), and Pearson correlation analysis. We focus on four indices: annual frost days (NAF), last spring frost (LSF), first autumn frost (FAF), and frost-free period (FFP), defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as days with minimum temperature ≤ 0&#xa0;°C. Results reveal significant declines in NAF (− 1.9&#xa0;days/decade), driven by asymmetric seasonal shifts: LSF retreated by − 1.13&#xa0;days/decade, while FAF delayed by + 1.52&#xa0;days/decade, extending the FFP by 4.4&#xa0;days/decade. Spatial patterns highlight strong elevation dependency, with northern inland mountainous regions experiencing the highest NAF (71–95&#xa0;days) and fastest FFP extension (+ 6.2&#xa0;days/decade), compared to coastal lowlands (&lt; 30 NAF; + 4.1&#xa0;days/decade FFP). These trends correlate strongly with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), particularly in high-elevation areas, though weaker coastal correlations underscore maritime buffering. These findings provide actionable insights for adaptive agricultural planning under climate change, particularly in mitigating frost-induced crop losses in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).</p>

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Spatiotemporal variability of frost events and links to large-scale climate oscillations in the DPRK (1971–2020)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月19日

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  • Ham YongSik,
  • Kum-Ryong Jo,
  • Won-Uk Kang,
  • Hyok-Chol Tokko,
  • Kum-Song Jon,
  • Kum-Su Ri

摘要

This study analyzes the variability and trends of frost indices (1971–2020) using daily temperature data from 40 meteorological stations, combined with linear regression, Mann–Kendall trend tests (p < 0.05), and Pearson correlation analysis. We focus on four indices: annual frost days (NAF), last spring frost (LSF), first autumn frost (FAF), and frost-free period (FFP), defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as days with minimum temperature ≤ 0 °C. Results reveal significant declines in NAF (− 1.9 days/decade), driven by asymmetric seasonal shifts: LSF retreated by − 1.13 days/decade, while FAF delayed by + 1.52 days/decade, extending the FFP by 4.4 days/decade. Spatial patterns highlight strong elevation dependency, with northern inland mountainous regions experiencing the highest NAF (71–95 days) and fastest FFP extension (+ 6.2 days/decade), compared to coastal lowlands (< 30 NAF; + 4.1 days/decade FFP). These trends correlate strongly with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), particularly in high-elevation areas, though weaker coastal correlations underscore maritime buffering. These findings provide actionable insights for adaptive agricultural planning under climate change, particularly in mitigating frost-induced crop losses in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).