Scholarlink

<p>This study aims to assess the potential effects of climate change on five major crops (rice, maize, sorghum, black gram and groundnut) across seven agro-climatic zones of Tamil Nadu, India, by 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 scenario. It addresses the gap in comprehensive zone-specific multi-crop analyses and emphasises the need for zone-specific adaptation strategies. Under the SSP&#xa0;2-4.5 scenario, projections indicate that the annual mean maximum temperature in Tamil Nadu could rise by 0.4&#xa0;°C. The minimum temperature may increase by 0.6&#xa0;°C between 2021 and 2050, compared to the base period of 1985–2014. Additionally, an approximate 4% increase in annual average rainfall is anticipated for the region during this period. The study applied the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer) crop simulation model to assess the potential impacts on crop yields. The study projected that the yield reduced for rice (-4.6% to -19.8%), maize (-14.5% to -23.4%), sorghum (-2.8% to -19%) and groundnut (-2.37% to -16.5%). However, black gram showed a mixed response, with yield increasing from -7.1% to&#xa0;+14.74%, benefiting from CO<sub>2</sub> fertilisation in some zones. These findings highlight the vulnerability of Tamil Nadu’s agriculture to climate change and the urgent need for targeted, zone-specific adaptation strategies. Policy makers should prioritise heat-tolerant varieties and improved water management to enhance agricultural resilience and ensure food security.&#xa0;</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Assessing crop resilience: climate change impact on major crops across agro climatic zones of Tamil Nadu, India under SSP 2–4.5 scenario

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月9日

查看全文
  • Ramachandran Andimuthu,
  • Praveenkumar Palanisamy,
  • Pavithrapriya S,
  • Mathan Mathivanan,
  • Kurian Joseph,
  • Ahamed Ibrahim S N

摘要

This study aims to assess the potential effects of climate change on five major crops (rice, maize, sorghum, black gram and groundnut) across seven agro-climatic zones of Tamil Nadu, India, by 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 scenario. It addresses the gap in comprehensive zone-specific multi-crop analyses and emphasises the need for zone-specific adaptation strategies. Under the SSP 2-4.5 scenario, projections indicate that the annual mean maximum temperature in Tamil Nadu could rise by 0.4 °C. The minimum temperature may increase by 0.6 °C between 2021 and 2050, compared to the base period of 1985–2014. Additionally, an approximate 4% increase in annual average rainfall is anticipated for the region during this period. The study applied the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer) crop simulation model to assess the potential impacts on crop yields. The study projected that the yield reduced for rice (-4.6% to -19.8%), maize (-14.5% to -23.4%), sorghum (-2.8% to -19%) and groundnut (-2.37% to -16.5%). However, black gram showed a mixed response, with yield increasing from -7.1% to +14.74%, benefiting from CO2 fertilisation in some zones. These findings highlight the vulnerability of Tamil Nadu’s agriculture to climate change and the urgent need for targeted, zone-specific adaptation strategies. Policy makers should prioritise heat-tolerant varieties and improved water management to enhance agricultural resilience and ensure food security.