<p>This study proposes a novel graphical trend analysis method namely Innovative point trend analysis with a radar graph (IPTAR), as an alternative to the existing Innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) method. The IPTAR method replaces the traditional Cartesian coordinate system with a radar graph, offering a simplified and more interpretable visualization of trend directions. By calculating the differences between the first and second long-term arithmetic averages (LTAA) or statistics of time-series data, the IPTAR method constructs radar-based trend points. These are assessed for statistical significance using newly introduced critical trend polygons, enabling robust trend detection at conventional significance levels (e.g., 5% and 10%). The method is applied to long-term monthly mean maximum temperature (MMMT) and monthly mean streamflow data from Turkey. Comparison with the IPTA method indicates that the IPTAR method improves the visual distinction between increasing and decreasing trends, particularly by reducing overlap and graphical complexity. These findings suggest that the IPTAR method is a promising, assumption-free tool for visual time-series trend analysis in climatological and hydrological applications. Also, it can be said that this method can be used in trend analysis studies for different areas from engineering to economy.</p>

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Innovative point trend analysis with a radar graph (IPTAR) and applications

  • Onur Arslan

摘要

This study proposes a novel graphical trend analysis method namely Innovative point trend analysis with a radar graph (IPTAR), as an alternative to the existing Innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) method. The IPTAR method replaces the traditional Cartesian coordinate system with a radar graph, offering a simplified and more interpretable visualization of trend directions. By calculating the differences between the first and second long-term arithmetic averages (LTAA) or statistics of time-series data, the IPTAR method constructs radar-based trend points. These are assessed for statistical significance using newly introduced critical trend polygons, enabling robust trend detection at conventional significance levels (e.g., 5% and 10%). The method is applied to long-term monthly mean maximum temperature (MMMT) and monthly mean streamflow data from Turkey. Comparison with the IPTA method indicates that the IPTAR method improves the visual distinction between increasing and decreasing trends, particularly by reducing overlap and graphical complexity. These findings suggest that the IPTAR method is a promising, assumption-free tool for visual time-series trend analysis in climatological and hydrological applications. Also, it can be said that this method can be used in trend analysis studies for different areas from engineering to economy.